Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 24, 2019
A note today for those companies who will be renewing their memberships for our newsletter in the coming weeks. Please take some time to speak with Paige Mayhair at 724-720-8630 or by email: Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com to see what options we now have for membership. We made significant changes in the way we are marketing our newsletters, which will allow for more of your employees to participate – in some cases at radically reduced rates.
When speaking to Paige, you should inquire about how many people can be on each membership level. We have two levels: Regional and Global, which allow an unlimited number of your employees to get the newsletter.
We no longer sell a single subscription to just one person. Our lowest level covers up to four people. SMU’s desire has always been to maximize the number of people within your company who can read our publication. Again, please contact Paige Mayhair at 724-720-1012 or by email: Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com to see how she can meet your company’s needs.
I also highly encourage your company to consider upgrading to Premium level access if you have not already. As a Premium subscriber, you will receive additional newsletters specifically sent to Premium members.
We will roll out our Service Center Inventories Indices for flat rolled and plate at the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference. Beginning in September, our Premium level members will have access to portions of that data.
A note to steel analysts who might wish to relate our Service Center Inventories analysis to your clients. You will need to arrange a license agreement prior to doing so.
As we move later into the year, we are in conversation with our parent company, The CRU Group, regarding providing more content for our Premium members from the 200+ analysts that are spread across the world.
With 31 days to go, registrations continue to come in for the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference. I will no longer reference where we are regarding the number of attendees as I want to save the final total as a surprise for those attending this year’s event. The number and quality of companies already registered is quite impressive. We received new registrations over the past few days from: ArcelorMittal Dofasco, Flack Global Metals, Civil & Environmental Consultants, Inc., JSW Steel USA Ohio, Inc., Nucor Steel-Gallatin, Polaris Industries, Jennmar, JN Linrose Mfg., Ferguson HVAC, Nucor Tubular Products, Cornerstone Building Brands, Argus Media, Commercial Steel Products and Platts.
To register for the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference – click here.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?