Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 26, 2019
There have been $120 per ton ($6.00/cwt) of flat rolled price increases going back to late June. Nucor announced the first plate price increase late on Friday afternoon. That increase is $40 per ton. I heard from a couple of plate service centers who basically said, “It’s about time.” I guess those distributors will support the increase. We will see if the greater market does. We have moved our Plate Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral from Lower, which is normal for SMU as we wait to see if the market does indeed accept a change in price direction. I will advise as soon as we get a handle on the market reaction and the mills’ ability to collect higher prices.
I will be traveling later this week to Minnesota and then to Atlanta to prepare for the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference. I will be in the office on Monday and Tuesday should you have any questions about how to make a nomination for the 2019 SMU NexGen Leadership Award or anything else…
Registrations keep coming for the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference (Aug. 26-28 in Atlanta). Here are a few of the newest additions over the past few days: Morrison Products, Inc., Zekelman Industries, ITW Sexton, Milbank Manufacturing, Mitsui & Co USA, Felux, Berg Steel Pipe Corporation, Dux Manufacturing, Nucor Tubular Products. These companies may not be included in the list put out in an earlier article in tonight’s issue. If you would like to register or find more information about the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference click on this link.
I want to personally thank everyone who has registered for this year’s event. We are now a month away from the opening of the conference. Attendance is going to be exceptional. The networking is going to be stellar. The program as well. Our SMU Events App is up and running. You should be making your list of who you need to meet during the conference.
The look and the feel of the conference will be a step above last year’s event. I will be in Atlanta working on the opening video(s) as we try to entertain those attending. The official attendance announcement will be made on Tuesday morning’s opening.
Reminder, we have the Managing Price Risk Workshop hosted by the CME Group at 10:30 AM on Monday morning (Aug. 26). My team, along with the CRU team will be at the Marriott Gateway Hotel on Sunday evening should any of you be arriving early to make sure you make the Price Risk workshop. That workshop will be at the Marriott Gateway Hotel next to the convention center. Registration (entry documents, program, notebook, etc.) and all other events will be at the Georgia International Convention Center.
I want to thank the companies who have nominated their young rising stars for the 2019 SMU NexGen Leadership Award, which is sponsored by the Steel Manufacturers Association. We will continue to accept nominations (and yes, we do accept self-nominations) until the end of business on Thursday, Aug. 1 (Thursday this week). Please get your nominations in by using this link.
We are also accepting registrations for the next Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals Workshop, which will be held in Cincinnati, Ohio, and will include a tour of the Nucor Gallatin steel mill (which has a number of pieces of new equipment, including a brand new coating mill). Information and registration can be found at www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel101
If your membership is coming up for renewal, please reach out to Paige Mayhair (most likely she has already reached out to you) at 724-720-1012 or by email: Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?