SMU Data and Models

Steel Mill Lead Times: Relatively Short
Written by Tim Triplett
September 12, 2019
Mill lead times saw a small uptick following the mill price increases announced in late June and July, but have since reverted back to relatively short levels. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The shorter the lead time, the less busy the mills, and the more likely they are to discount prices.
The average lead time for hot rolled is now a bit less than four weeks, cold rolled is about five and a half weeks and coated steels are around six and a half weeks. Plate lead times are now less than four weeks. All are shorter than at this time last year.
Hot rolled lead times now average 3.97 weeks, shortened from 4.22 weeks in mid-August. The average cold rolled lead time has dipped slightly to 5.65 weeks from 6.07 weeks. The average lead time for galvanized has stayed the same at 6.57 weeks, while the lead time for spot orders of Galvalume is down slightly at 6.67 weeks.
Lead times for spot orders of plate steel have also declined over the past two weeks to an average of 3.88 from 4.50 weeks.
Commented one executive, “It depends on the product. Because of indexed deals, I think order books for October were fairly heavy, but I see that dropping off.”
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.

Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models

Apparent steel supply remains elevated in July
Apparent supply totaled 8.88 million short tons (st) in July, down 38,000 st from June and 6% higher than the same month last year

HRC vs. prime scrap spread narrows slightly
The price spread between prime scrap and hot-rolled coil (HRC) narrowed by a hair this month, according to SMU’s most recent pricing data.

SMU Scrap Survey: Current Sentiment rises as Future Sentiment falls
SMU’s current Scrap sentiment index increased this month while future sentiment declined, according to our latest ferrous scrap survey data.

SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s September ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU Survey: Sentiment inches up from low levels
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices ticked higher this week, according to the latest data from our flat-rolled steel survey.