SMU Data and Models

Steel Mill Lead Times: Relatively Short

September 12, 2019

Mill lead times saw a small uptick following the mill price increases announced in late June and July, but have since reverted back to relatively short levels. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The shorter the lead time, the less busy the mills, and the more likely they are to discount prices.

The average lead time for hot rolled is now a bit less than four weeks, cold rolled is about five and a half weeks and coated steels are around six and a half weeks. Plate lead times are now less than four weeks. All are shorter than at this time last year.

Hot rolled lead times now average 3.97 weeks, shortened from 4.22 weeks in mid-August. The average cold rolled lead time has dipped slightly to 5.65 weeks from 6.07 weeks. The average lead time for galvanized has stayed the same at 6.57 weeks, while the lead time for spot orders of Galvalume is down slightly at 6.67 weeks.

Lead times for spot orders of plate steel have also declined over the past two weeks to an average of 3.88 from 4.50 weeks.

Commented one executive, “It depends on the product. Because of indexed deals, I think order books for October were fairly heavy, but I see that dropping off.”

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.