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    December 15, 2019

    Will Steel Prices Keep Trending Up Into 2020?

    Written by Tim Triplett

    After declining for much of 2019, steel prices have moved up substantially in the last two months. Will the trend continue into 2020?

    Flat rolled steel producers raised prices three times during October and November for a total of $110 per ton. (Editor’s note: ArcelorMittal USA announced an additional $40 flat rolled increase on Friday. Other mills are likely to follow, making for the fourth round of increases this year.) Likewise, plate producers also announced three increases, raising prices by a total of $130 per ton. Just because they announce higher prices does not mean the mills will be able to collect them. That depends on what the market will bear and how much support they get from distributors (see chart below). But without doubt, the increases have moved the market.

    Tim Triplett

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    SMU Survey: Mill willingness to negotiate price at lowest levels since 2021

    The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.