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    CRU: Covid-19 is Spreading Through the Auto Industry

    Written by Zanna Aleksahhina


    By CRU Multi-Commodity Analyst Zanna Aleksahhina

    As of Feb. 19, the outbreak of coronavirus Covid-19 has killed more than 2,000 people, infected over 75,000 others, and put millions in self-isolation. Aside from the human tragedy, the virus poses a real threat to the Chinese economy. The automotive industry will be hit hard, and we expect Chinese automotive production to be pushed further into recession in 2020. The automotive industry is one of the most complex and highly integrated global supply chains. The disruption of China’s market has global implications; expect the effects to ripple through the industry.

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    Plate supply squeeze tightens as demand presses higher

    The domestic plate market is showing few signs of relief for steel buyers. Lead times are stretching well beyond seasonal norms, spot availability has all but evaporated, and mills are drawing hard lines on contract volumes heading into 2027 negotiations. And the supply squeeze will likely intensify in a market that some industry sources say is structurally undersupplied because of stringent US trade and tariff policies. Imports have been arriving in larger volumes, and the expectation is they will continue to tick higher into 2027. The big question is whether those foreign tons will arrive in volumes sufficient to provide the relief steel consumers want.