Analysis
September 22, 2026
Written by Brett Linton & Michael Cowden
Sheet and plate prices continued to tick mostly higher this week amid a supply squeeze that shows no signs of loosening its grip on the US market.
US steel exports eased 3% from August to September, marking the third consecutive monthly decline following June’s 17-month high, according to recently released US Department of Commerce figures. Exports have been historically low since early 2025 and remain weak compared to volumes seen in prior years. In September, 615,000 short tons (st) of steel were shipped outside of the country, 2% below the average monthly export rate of the past twelve months. September trade was 3% higher than the same month of 2025, 19% lower than September 2024, 21% lower than September 2023, and 15% lower than September 2022. For context, exports fell to a five-year low of 469,000 st in December and reached a near-five-year high of 914,000 st in May 2023.
Final import data for September from the US Commerce Department shows a slight decline from August’s 15-month high. And October’s license count suggests another month-on-month (m/m) decline in imports. September imports of 2,416,717 short tons (st) were down just 1% from 2,434,108 st in August, a 15-month high. October license data show a steeper 8% m/m fall to 2,214,730 st (Figure 1, left). August appears to have been the peak for the recovery in imports, which has been ongoing since February of this year, when we saw some of the lowest levels since 2020.
Imports of tin mill products from Taiwan and Turkey face new anti-dumping duties (AD) in the US after a key Commerce Department determination. In the trade case investigating allegedly dumped tin mill products, Commerce preliminarily determined that tin mill products from both countries are being sold below fair value.
Every month, SMU polls participants in the ferrous scrap market on a variety of topics, including prices. This month's survey results landed just as the November scrap market was starting to settle. Preliminary results show scrap prices rose across the board for all the products SMU tracks. Final prices will be in SMU later this week. As the final numbers come in, we'd like to share where survey respondents thought prices would be on busheling, shredded, and HMS scrap, as well as where they see prices heading over the next 60 days.
November scrap procurement has commenced in the US with buyers divided on the price increases from the previous month. Several mills reportedly sought a rise of $20 per gross ton (gt) while others saw $30/gt as the number. The $30/gt price tag mainly applies to the obsolete grades, like shredded, P&S and #1 HMS, with prime grades pulling up the rear at $20. SMU spoke to a Chicago-based source who said that market was up $30/gt and 20/gt on shredded and busheling, respectively. He also mentioned the integrated mills in this district are after heavier grades like P&S and railroad grades, like wheels. These grades have been in short supply since last summer. Our source believes they commanded prices up $30/gt while busheling was at plus $20.