Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
June 5, 2020
There is much to discuss, much to learn…
As trade attorney Lewis Leibowitz lays out in his article/opinion piece this evening, there are no easy solutions to issues built over decades. International manufacturing companies need to review their supply chains to ensure they are not doing business in countries potentially hostile to the United States. Steel mills are balancing supply against demand. Steel buyers are rethinking their sourcing strategies.
During a “normal” economy, the U.S. steel mills do not produce enough steel to satisfy domestic consumption. Even Barry Zekelman admitted that in the SMU Community Chat webinar we held with him a couple of weeks back. There are new mills under construction, but at the same time it appears old mills are going to be phased out.
One question that we will address during the 2020 SMU Virtual Steel Summit Conference is: Will the mills be able to balance supply with true demand, including items that are not being produced in the U.S. right now?
You will hear answers to that question and many more during this year’s SMU Virtual Steel Summit Conference. You can register for the event by clicking here.
We produced our SMU Service Center Inventories & Shipments “Flash” report for data providers last week. We will produce our full report for data providers and for Premium members shortly thereafter. If you are a service center and would like to participate (confidential basis), please contact Estelle.Tran@crugroup.com or John Packard at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com. If you would like to upgrade your membership to Premium, please contact Paige Mayhair at Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com or 724-720-1012.
We are conducting one of our SMU flat rolled and plate steel market trends surveys this week. Look for your invitation in your email inbox at 8 AM ET on Monday. If you would like to participate in our surveys, please send a note to: Brett@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?