Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 3, 2020
We don’t get to choose when we were born. We don’t choose what natural disasters, epidemiological emergencies, stock market crashes, tyrannical regimes, or wars our generations face. We only get to choose how we react. (Professor Wendy Beth Hyman of Oberlin College to her students on March 11, 2020).
Thank you for bearing with us over the past few days as we gave our employees some well-deserved time off and we did not publish on Thursday of last week and again on Sunday.
We are now back and working on all cylinders. If you have any questions for us, please feel free to ask away: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Ferrous scrap started trading today at down $20 on obsoletes and down $40 on prime grades (bundles and busheling). Ryan McKinley, scrap expert for CRU, will discuss what he is finding on buying activity and supply when he speaks during our SMU Community Chat webinar tomorrow at 11 AM ET. The webinar is free to anyone who would like to attend. This is a good way to expose your junior executives, sales, purchasing and those who continue to work outside the office to what is going on in the industry. You can register for this free webinar by clicking here or by going to our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/blog/smu-community-chat-webinars
We are conducting one of our flat rolled and plate steel market trends surveys this week. We will provide a sneak peek at a couple of items during tomorrow’s webinar. Otherwise, we will begin articles in the Thursday and Sunday night issues of SMU.
Our Service Center “Flash” report will go out to data providers tomorrow. If you are a service center selling prime flat rolled or plate products and you would like information about becoming a data provider, and what you receive for being a confidential data provider, please contact Estelle.Tran@crugroup.com or John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
We are now pushing 400 registered attendees for the 2020 SMU Virtual Steel Summit Conference including those added today: 3GM Steel, Luminus Management, FCA US LLC, Lennox International*, Caterpillar Mexico, Mitsui Steel, North American Steel, Trinity Industries, and Steel Technologies* (* denotes more than one person is registered). You can join the hundreds of companies who will be attending (and networking) if you click here. You can also find more information on our website www.SteelMarketUpdate.com and click on the SMU Virtual Steel Summit link on the site. You can see a more complete list of the registered companies by clicking on this link. The list is updated every few days.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.