Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 27, 2020
Watch the market closely. I am hearing rumors that at least one EAF mill is trying to get flat rolled numbers up. Right now, most (not all) data providers were not supportive of higher numbers. I am hearing integrated mills are not booking a lot of spot business, and thus are able to get slightly higher prices. Although with new capacity coming back online there is a struggle for market share. We will need to watch lead times closely in the coming weeks.
Here are just two of the comments we received from steel buyers today:
“I do not believe pricing will rise with the announced price increases. If it does it will be short lived, as I believe the minimills’ lead time is too short, and they need tons to fill.”
“Although I was not really expecting it, I am now thinking some of the increase will stick. As a side note, based on numbers we have received, the offshore spread is shrinking a bit. The offshore increase was certainly more than the domestic.”
Less than a month to go… (26 days)
I added a couple new speakers to the 2020 SMU Virtual Steel Summit Conference. I added Big River Steel CEO David Stickler, and I added Tom Cullen, CEO of Magic Coil Products.
We have the CEOs for the following steel mills speaking at this year’s conference:
David Burritt, U.S. Steel
Leon Topalian, Nucor
Mark Millett, Steel Dynamics
Maximo Vedoya, Ternium
David Stickler, Big River Steel
Lourenco Goncalves, Cleveland-Cliffs/AK Steel
We could never have had as many mill CEOs in a live event (just not enough time in the program). With a virtual event, we can control time and offer more speakers, cover more topics.
We have a couple of professional speakers for this year’s conference that I think you will find quite interesting. Ryan Avery THE Keynote Speaker will discuss how to stop being “a” leader and become “THE” leader. In 2012 Ryan won the prestigious World Championship of Public Speaking. Jeff Butler is an entrepreneur and he will discuss Building an Effective Multi-Generational Workplace. You will not want to miss either of these young speakers.
Encourage the “C-Suite,” Human Resources and young up-and-coming leaders to attend this year’s conference.
Our parent company’s events team produced a virtual conference for the wire and cable industry last week using the same platform we will be using for the 2020 SMU Virtual Steel Summit Conference. That conference attendance was larger than the normal live event, as it was very much international in focus, and the virtual nature allowed for attendees from around the world to interact with the platform on their schedule.
The ability to multi-task and network with large numbers of people was appreciated by the wire and cable attendees. One analyst reported having 20 conversations going on at the same time.
Whether you are registered or not, you will want to participate in Wednesday’s SMU Community Chat Webinar as Paul Terry of CRU Events and I unveil the new platform from which we will host our conference this year. We will provide answers to many questions you might have about the conference, the program and your ability to network.
You can register for the webinar by clicking here, or going to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/blog/smu-community-chat-webinars We will record this webinar and it will be available later this week under the SMU Community Chat webinar link in our website (same one referenced at the beginning of this paragraph).
We are closing in on 600 registered attendees, having added these companies over the past 24 hours (those with an * mean more than one attendee registered from that company): Medtrade*, Bailey Metal Products, Ltd, Magic Coil Products*, Zekelman Industries*, Verde Industries, Inc., Minnesota Power*, and Metal Master. If you would like to join them click here. If you have questions, please feel free to reach out to us at Events@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Don’t forget SMU NexGen Leadership Award nominees will be given free registration to this year’s conference. You can nominate someone by clicking here or going to www.smusteelsummit.com and clicking on the 2020 Award tab. Nominations close soon.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?