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    August 3, 2020

    SMU Energy Analysis for July

    Written by Brett Linton

    U.S. production of crude oil decreased in May by 1.99 million barrels per day (b/d), the largest monthly decrease since at least January 1980, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. May marks the sixth consecutive monthly decrease in crude oil production and is the third month since March when the government declared a national emergency over the COVID-19 outbreak.

    May crude oil production decreased by 16.6 percent as the economic impact of COVID-19 mitigation efforts led to a drop in demand. Reduced economic activity has caused changes in energy supply and demand patterns. Crude oil producers curtailed production and reduced drilling activity, lowering the output for the major U.S. oil-producing regions. The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil average spot price dropped from $58 dollars per barrel (b) in January 2020 to $17/b in April. However, WTI increased to $29/b in May as production decreased and demand increased.

    Brett Linton

    Brett Linton is a digital operations analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.

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    Apparent steel supply remains historically strong through August

    The volume of finished steel that entered the US market increased 1% from July to August to the second-highest monthly level recorded in the past four years, according to SMU’s analysis of recently released Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute data. Apparent steel supply is calculated by combining domestic mill shipments and finished US steel imports, then subtracting total US exports. It can be used as a proxy for domestic steel demand. Supply has remained historically strong since May, when it surpassed the 9 million st mark it had previously been beneath for four years.

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    Total shipments of heating and cooling equipment cooled further in August, according to the latest figures from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). After falling 11% month on month (m/m) in July, shipments slipped another 10% in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year-to-date. Shipments of water heaters, air conditioners, and heat pumps declined m/m, while warm-air furnace shipments picked up. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pumps increased.