Final Thoughts

October 7, 2020

I have been communicating with Mark Bush, CEO of JSW Steel USA, regarding their Mingo Junction steel plant. The plant has been down since late July as the company reacted to “unforeseeable business circumstances in connection with the current COVID-19 pandemic….” The plant has been rumored to begin operations in February 2021. SMU reached out to get more details about the startup and the products that will be produced.

hot slab Mr. Bush told us, “We are on schedule to start the JSW Ohio facility up with upgrades to the Primary Operations in March of 2021. The upgrades are part of our long-term strategy to maximize profitability while supporting our Baytown, Texas, facility with “melted and manufactured” [USA] slabs. Additionally, the upgrades will improve our environmental impact, safety for our employees, quality, productivity and reliability.”

We asked if the Mingo Junction plant would be a merchant slab provider to NLMK USA and he said, “A portion of the slab production from Mingo Junction could be available to the market.”

When asked if the hot strip mill would return to service to provide hot bands to the market, he said, “The JSW Steel USA team is in the process of developing a business model that will deliver the highest return to the company.”

SMU delivered our “flash report” on service center inventories earlier this week to our service center data providers. I highly recommend to flat rolled and plate steel distributors that you consider participating in our confidential and proprietary inventories and shipment analysis. We dig into areas not covered by other analyses, and I think you will find the information valuable as you make sales and purchasing decisions.

For our Executive level newsletter subscribers (we prefer to call you members), a portion of the complete analysis is available to our Premium-level members. You can learn more about what Premium membership entails by contacting Paige Mayhair at Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com

Paige can also assist anyone who wishes to expand their membership or to become a new member.

Over the coming weeks you will be introduced in greater depth to David Schollaert who is an analyst at Steel Market Update (our company is growing). Our intention is to expand our Premium level content as David spends time analyzing data we produce through our surveys, ongoing discussions with steel buyers and steel mills, as well as working on new proprietary information we are keen to develop.

We began conducting our SMU Community Chat webinars again this week with Timna Tanners joining me as the featured speakers. As with everything in this crazy year, my power went off just as Tim Triplett began asking Timna questions from our audience, and I did not get back online until the Q&A period was over. Oops. So, I know from the comments received that the webinar was appreciated by the attendees. If you would like to view the recording of this webinar, you can do so by clicking here. We look forward to doing another SMU Community Chat Webinar on Wednesday, Oct. 21, at 11 a.m. ET. The next SMU Community Chat webinar will be a little different in that we will feature Dr. David Schultz who is a Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Legal Studies at Hamline University. Dr. Schultz is an expert on elections and election ethics. He was well received by our 2020 SMU Steel Summit Conference attendees, and we thought it would be good to hear from him again just prior to the Nov. 3 election. This webinar will be slightly different because of the tight schedule Dr. Schultz has due to the election being only a few days from the date of our webinar on Oct. 21. We will tape Dr. Schultz’s comments and replay them on the 21st. You do not need to be a subscriber, or even a reader of our newsletters, to listen in as we produce our SMU Community Chats as a service to the greater steel community. You can register for this free webinar by clicking here, or going to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/blog/smu-community-chat-webinars

SMU Price Momentum on flat rolled (and plate) are currently referenced at “Higher” meaning we anticipate prices to move higher over the next 30 days. Plate is the weakest product we are following. One of our data providers put it this way in a comment earlier this week: “The mill will collect most of the $50/ton announced for HRC but less than half for plate….” Markets and momentum can change quickly, so steel buyers need to be careful and watch lead times, listen to what the mill sales reps are telling you (usually reading between the lines), and watch for changes in supply, which is the major driver of prices right now.

By the way, the 2021 SMU Steel Summit Conference is scheduled to be a live event at the Georgia International Convention Center in Atlanta on Aug. 23-25. Please mark your calendars and put it into your 2021 budgets. Fingers crossed the pandemic will be behind us….

If you would like to provide your opinions, suggestions or make other comments directly to me, I can be reached at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com

As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.

John Packard, President & CEO