SMU Data and Models

SMU Market Trends: Buyers Bullish on Next Year
Written by Tim Triplett
October 16, 2020
About 72 percent of the service center and OEM executives polled by Steel Market Update this week said they expect the economy in 2021 to be better than 2020. The other 28 percent was evenly split between those who expect more of the same and those who see next year being even worse.
No surprise, their comments focused on two factors: the outcome of the election and the spread of COVID-19. “It all depends on who is elected president,” said several respondents. “It all depends on the virus,” said several others. Expressed one optimist: “The best is yet to come. I’m a glass half full type of person.”
Steel buyers offered mixed views of demand, almost evenly split between those who said demand is the same or declining, and those who see demand improving.
“Demand has been very consistent,” said one buyer. “Construction, both residential and non-res, and agriculture are strong, so our business is excellent,” said another. “Things have slowed some in part because we are running out of inventory that people want or are willing to pay the high prices for,” added a third exec.

Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Sheet lead times inch up, plate moves lower
Sheet times ticked higher but remain within days of multi-year lows, territory they have been in since May. Plate lead times have shifted lower in the past month but remain about a week longer than they were at this time last year.

SMU Survey: Mills slightly less negotiable on spot pricing
Sheet and plate buyers say mills remain open to negotiating spot prices this week, though less so than in recent weeks, according to SMU’s latest market survey.

August service center shipments and inventories report
US service centers flat-rolled steel supply in August declined month-over-month (m/m) and year-over-year (y/y), according to SMU data.

Apparent steel supply remains elevated in July
Apparent supply totaled 8.88 million short tons (st) in July, down 38,000 st from June and 6% higher than the same month last year

HRC vs. prime scrap spread narrows slightly
The price spread between prime scrap and hot-rolled coil (HRC) narrowed by a hair this month, according to SMU’s most recent pricing data.