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U.S. Raw Steel Production Reaches 14-Month High in March

Written by Brett Linton

May 26, 2021

U.S. raw steel production in March increased nearly 870,000 tons or 12.5% from February, reaching 7.83 million net tons, according to recently released American Iron and Steel Institute data. March marks the highest production level seen since January 2020 when 8.44 million tons were produced by domestic mills. March production is up 120,000 tons or 1.6% compared to the same month last year.

Note that AISI’s monthly production estimates are different than the weekly estimates SMU reports each Tuesday; the monthly estimates are based on over 75% of the domestic mills reporting versus only 50% reporting for the weekly estimates.

Figure 1 compares monthly production data on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to smooth out the month-to-month fluctuations. Raw production averaged 7.49 million tons between January and March 2021, the highest 3MMA level since March 2020. The March 3MMA is up 7.3% compared to the 6.98-million-ton average in the last quarter of 2020. January through March 2020 production averaged 7.98 million tons. The lowest 3MMA in 2020 was 5.39 million tons for April through June production.

SMU is now publishing regional steel production data for the four regions responsible for 10% or more of total domestic production; Figure 2 shows 3MMA production history from the combined states of Virginia, West Virginia, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina and Louisiana. The latest 3MMA for March is 787,000 tons, the highest level since May 2020, but down 26% compared to the same period in 2020.

Figure 3 shows the combined production between Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas and Kentucky. The March 3MMA is 1.97 million tons, the second highest level in SMU’s recorded history, just behind the September 2013 3MMA of 1.99 million tons. Production among these states is up 6.9% year-over-year through March.

Figure 4 displays 3MMA production from Ohio, currently at 876,000 tons through March and up 1.5% over the same period in 2020. March is the highest 3MMA seen since December 2019.

Figure 5 shows the 3MMA production levels from the state of Indiana through March. Produciton is now at 2.02 million tons, the highest production rate in 12 months. March 2021 production was down 5.9% compared to March 2020.

The mill capacity utilization rate for March averaged 78.0%, up from 76.8% in February, and up from 75.3% one year ago. The average capacity utilization rate for the year is now 77.1%, down from 79.6% in the same three-month period of 2020.

On a 3MMA basis, the capacity utilization rate through March increased to 77.1%, down 2.3% compared to the same period one year prior. As shown in Figure 6, this rate has increased each month since the June 2020 low of 55.6%.

SMU Note: Additional raw steel production graphics are available in the Analysis section of our website here. If you need assistance logging into or navigating the website, contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.

By Brett Linton, Brett@SteelMarketUpdate.com

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a digital operations analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.

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