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    CRU: Power Cuts in China Will Persist Even as Coal Supply Improves

    Written by CRU Americas


    By CRU Senior Analyst Dimitry Popov and Analyst Wei Wang

    In recent weeks, China has been experiencing the worst power shortages in decades. Various industries in 20 provinces have been affected and even residential customers had power cuts in the extreme cases. Increasing electricity demand, short coal supply and the decarbonization drive are three main causes of the power storage. What’s the impact of higher electricity prices in China? When will domestic coal prices in China decline? And for how long will power cuts continue?

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    CRU: HR coil futures re-price 2027 forward curve

    CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.