HRC Futures – Flattening the Curve

Editor’s note: SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. Before joining Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held a variety of commercial leadership roles involving purchasing, sales, and risk management for Feralloy Corporation, Cargill Steel Service Centers and Plateplus Inc. You can learn more about Metal Edge at www.metaledgepartners.com. Bryan can be reached at Bryan@metaledgepartners.com.

Despite the dramatic rise in COVID cases as evidenced below, it seems the term “flattening the curve” has fallen out of favor. Early in the pandemic it became a consistent mantra as we attempted to avoid overwhelming the health care system and buy time until vaccines could be developed and deployed. Fortunately, the chart below shows that the recent spike in cases (red bars) has not resulted in a similar rise in deaths (white bars) as was seen in the Dec20-Jan21 growth in cases or in the Delta variant wave rise of Sept-Oct 2021. Much has been written about the lesser severity of the Omicron strain, and I hope that as more people are exposed and we increase immunity (naturally or through vaccines), that future strains will be less fatal regardless of how contagious they may be. On a side note, thanks to all the tireless efforts of healthcare professionals helping to fight this pandemic!