• Skip to main content

    Prices

    May 15, 2022

    HRC-Bush Spread Analysis: Peaking Out After March Rebound?

    Written by Brett Linton

    According to the latest Steel Market Update data, the spread between hot rolled coil prices and prime scrap prices has leveled out over the past eight weeks, after reaching an 18-month low in early March. The latest spread through May 10 is down compared to this time last year, but still higher than pre-pandemic spreads.

    The SMU hot rolled coil price average fell $75 per ton to $1,365 per net ton ($68.25 per cwt) as of last Tuesday, and is now at a seven week low. Recall our HRC price peaked last September at $1,955 per ton, gradually falling to a low of $1,000 per ton in early March. HRC prices then rapidly rose following the Russia-Ukraine war, reaching a high of $1,480 per ton in mid-April.

    Brett Linton

    Brett Linton is a digital operations analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.

    Read more from Brett Linton

    Latest in Prices

    Plate supply squeeze tightens as demand presses higher

    The domestic plate market is showing few signs of relief for steel buyers. Lead times are stretching well beyond seasonal norms, spot availability has all but evaporated, and mills are drawing hard lines on contract volumes heading into 2027 negotiations. And the supply squeeze will likely intensify in a market that some industry sources say is structurally undersupplied because of stringent US trade and tariff policies. Imports have been arriving in larger volumes, and the expectation is they will continue to tick higher into 2027. The big question is whether those foreign tons will arrive in volumes sufficient to provide the relief steel consumers want.