SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Respondents Beat Forecasts in May, Concerned About June
Written by Michael Cowden
June 9, 2022
May was a good month for market participants surveyed by SMU, most of whom reported meeting or beating expectations then.
Approximately 55% of survey respondents said they met their business forecasts last month, 25% said they exceeded them, and only 20% said they missed forecast.
The big question will be June, which has seen steel price declines accelerate amid increasing concerns about demand and the broader economy.
The chart below comes from a new question that we’ve introduced to our survey, full results of which will be released on Friday. We’ll update it on a regular basis going forward.
Here is what some survey participants had to say about the issue of beating, meeting or missing forecasts.
“Exceeded volume targets.”
“We were able to pass on the price increases.”
“It was a good month, but as Jamie Dimon might say, the hurricane is here”
“Several large customers pushed back or reduced their forecasts”
“Slowed down end of month.”
“Forecast softened, orders moved out.”
“Logistics problems were our main reason” for not meeting forecast.
“Missed by over 10%.”
Editor’s note: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said at an investor conference earlier this month that economic conditions might seem “fine” now but that “a hurricane” was coming. “You’d better brace yourself,” he said. “JPMorgan is bracing ourselves, and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.”
By Michael Cowden, Michael@SteelMarketUpdate.com

Michael Cowden
Read more from Michael CowdenLatest in SMU Data and Models

July service center shipments and inventories report
In July, US service centers’ flat-rolled steel supply increased month on month, following the seasonal summer trend of inventory build with slowing shipments.

Apparent steel supply increases in June
The amount of finished steel coming into the US market increased 3% from May to June, climbing to one of the highest rates seen in recent years, according to SMU’s analysis of Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data

SMU Survey: Modest improvement in Sentiment Indices
Both SMU Sentiment Indices continue to show that buyers remain optimistic for their company’s chances of success, though far less confident than they felt earlier in the year.

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s Aug. 8, 2025, steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU’s July at a glance
SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of our key steel market metrics for the previous month, with the latest data updated through July 31.