SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Respondents Beat Forecasts in May, Concerned About June
Written by Michael Cowden
June 9, 2022
May was a good month for market participants surveyed by SMU, most of whom reported meeting or beating expectations then.
Approximately 55% of survey respondents said they met their business forecasts last month, 25% said they exceeded them, and only 20% said they missed forecast.
The big question will be June, which has seen steel price declines accelerate amid increasing concerns about demand and the broader economy.
The chart below comes from a new question that we’ve introduced to our survey, full results of which will be released on Friday. We’ll update it on a regular basis going forward.
Here is what some survey participants had to say about the issue of beating, meeting or missing forecasts.
“Exceeded volume targets.”
“We were able to pass on the price increases.”
“It was a good month, but as Jamie Dimon might say, the hurricane is here”
“Several large customers pushed back or reduced their forecasts”
“Slowed down end of month.”
“Forecast softened, orders moved out.”
“Logistics problems were our main reason” for not meeting forecast.
“Missed by over 10%.”
Editor’s note: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said at an investor conference earlier this month that economic conditions might seem “fine” now but that “a hurricane” was coming. “You’d better brace yourself,” he said. “JPMorgan is bracing ourselves, and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.”
By Michael Cowden, Michael@SteelMarketUpdate.com

Michael Cowden
Read more from Michael CowdenLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Scrap Survey: Current and Future Sentiment tick down
SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap decreased this month, a move mirrored by our Future Sentiment Index, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment slips again, future outlook improves
Each of our Sentiment Indices continues to reflect that steel buyers are positive about their present and future business prospects, though that confidence has eased considerably compared to the beginning of the year.

SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s October ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times stabilize
Sheet and plate lead times saw minor shifts this week, according to SMU’s latest market survey. Sheet times have inched up over the last month but remain within days of multi-year lows, as they have since May. Plate lead times have bobbed within a tight range for months, hovering roughly a week longer than this time last year.