Economy
Empire State Manufacturing Plunges in August, Outlook Still Gloomy
Written by David Schollaert
August 16, 2022
Business activity in the state of New York saw a sharp decline in August, a complete reversal from the modest increase the month prior, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey.
The New York Fed’s Empire State headline general business conditions index—a gauge of manufacturing activity in the state—plummeted by 42.2 points in August to a reading of -31.3, returning to negative territory following a short-lived gain the month prior.
The dive was a surprise. Economists had expected a second straight modest increase. (Any reading below zero indicates deteriorating conditions.)
The report provided a few key takeaways. On the one hand, the report said delivery time held steady for the first time in two years, and inventories edged higher. On the other hand, firms remained mostly pessimistic about the next six months as the index of future activity edged up to a marginal reading of 2.1. Also, the new orders and shipments indexes plunged, down -35.8 and -49.4 points, respectively, while unfilled orders declined by 7.5 points to a reading of -12.7 points in August.
The prices paid index declined 8.8 points to a still elevated 55.5, while the prices-received index edged up 1.4 points to a 32.7 reading.
Employee indexes both fell in August, eroding for the second straight month. The average workweek index was -13.1, down 17.4 points versus July’s reading, while employment declined by 10.6 points to a reading of 7.4.
Firms were again rather pessimistic about the next six months, a sentiment expressed only four times in the survey’s history but for the second straight month, the report said.
Why the continued gloom? Though the indexes for future new orders and shipments were positive, they remained at low levels. And while employment is expected to pick up and delivery times are expected to decline over the next six months, only modest increases in capital spending and technology spending are planned for the months ahead.
An interactive history of the Empire State Manufacturing Index is available on our website. If you need assistance logging into or navigating the website, please contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
By David Schollaert, David@SteelMarketUpdate.com
David Schollaert
Read more from David SchollaertLatest in Economy
Second steel derivatives S232 inclusion window opens, business community voices concern
The US Department of Commerce announced that its second window for submitting applications for the inclusion of derivative steel and aluminum products in Section 232 tariffs is now open, according to the US Federal Register. September’s Inclusion Window Sept. 15 through Sept. 29, applicants can email requests for inclusions to the Defense Industrial Base Programs. The first […]
Steel Summit: ITR economist urges execs to prepare for growth, not recession
If the steel industry professionals who made it to the very final presentation of this year’s SMU Steel Summit were expecting another round of cautious forecasting, they were in for a surprise. Because what they got was a wake-up call.
ISM: Manufacturing growth remained down in August
US manufacturing activity remained muted in August despite a marginal gain from July's recent low, according to supply executives contributing to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)’s latest report.
Steel Summit: Dr. Basu blames tariffs for riskier path ahead
Steel executives packed the main conference hall of the 2025 SMU Steel Summit on Tuesday, Aug. 26, to hear economist Dr. Anirban Basu lay out his blunt view of tariffs, inflation, and demand.
Steel Summit: Schneider sees SDI ‘on the edge of a very good run’
Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) President and Chief Operating Officer, Barry Schneider, remains bullish about the Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steelmaker’s position in the current market.