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    Contributor: David Schollaert

    David Schollaert

    David Schollaert is deputy editor-in-chief for Steel Market Update. David joined SMU after more than a decade in the metals and mining industry in a myriad of different roles. Much of his early experience and expertise were within the coverage and analysis of steel-making raw materials and served previously as senior editor of the CRU Prices Service. Most recently, however, before his return to market analysis, David held roles as a metals buyer and an operations manager for raw material suppliers. He can be contacted at david@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-720-1008.

    Read more from David Schollaert

    Global raw steel output down again in September

    Global raw steel production slowed for the fourth straight month in September, according to the latest figures from the World Steel Association (worldsteel). After falling 3.4% month over month (m/m) in August, the total volume of raw steel produced around the globe ticked down 1.2% to an estimated 142.4 million metric tons (mt) in September. Output was down just 0.1% year over year (y/y). On a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis, annual production has averaged 149.3 million mt per month across the past year. This was down 1.6% y/y and was the lowest 12MMA since May (Figure 1). Before September 2025, annual output had generally hovered between 152 million mt and 154 million mt for over three years, similar to pre-pandemic levels.

    BlueScope names interim North America leader as Keast departs

    BlueScope has announced interim leadership for its US operations with the impending departure of Kristie Keast. BlueScope has announced interim leadership for its North American operations ahead of the departure of Kristie Keast. Keast will leave the company at the end of October after serving as chief executive of North America since February 2023, the company said. "Kristie has made a significant contribution to BlueScope during her 25-year tenure,” said BlueScope’s managing director and CEO Tania Archibald. “On behalf of the Board and Executive Leadership Team, I thank her for her leadership and commitment to the Company and wish her every success for the future."

    Drilling activity is flat again in the US, recovers in Canada

    The latest tally of active drilling rigs held steady in the US for a third straight week, while activity rose in Canada this week, according to oil and gas rig count data published by Baker Hughes. The US rig count remained unchanged at 603 rigs this week, maintaining a 17-month high. Compared to this time last year, there are 53 more rigs in operation today. Canada’s count rose by three to 220 rigs this week, recovering after a short-lived easing the prior week. Activity is up compared to the same week of 2025, with 21 more rigs operating today.

    Metalformers grow more cautious in October

    Metalformers’ economic outlook softened in the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) October Business Conditions Report. Still, the bulk of respondents continued to expect stable conditions. The monthly survey of 80 metalforming companies in the US and Canada provides an economic indicator for manufacturing over the next three months. “While this month’s survey reflects increased caution about the near-term economic outlook, the energy and investment on display at FABTECH this week tell a broader story about our industry’s resilience,” commented Mark Getsay, PMA’s managing director. Participation at the event, Getsay said, “demonstrates metalformers’ continued commitment to investing in new technologies, developing their workforce and strengthening their competitiveness for the future.”

    Commercial vehicle pullback weighs on North American auto output

    North American auto assemblies fell 2.2% from August to 1.314 million units in September, as lower commercial vehicle production outweighed nearly unchanged personal vehicle output, according to GlobalData. After steady gains through Q2, automotive production has been inconsistent, continuing a seesaw pattern. Still, assemblies remain muted and well below pre-pandemic levels. Total production was 4% below September 2025. Still, last month’s production total was 2.7% above 2026’s monthly average of 1.28 million units.

    SMU: MOI surge triggered by historically long lead times

    SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) surged in September, up for a fifth consecutive month and setting a record high. The increase came as service center on-order volumes and new mill order entries reached record highs—overtaking any prior high-water mark—including the post-pandemic snapback in demand, according to SMU’s latest service center inventory data. The MOI now stands at 162.7, up nearly 18% from 138.3 in August. The MOI was more than 35% above the average year-to-date (YTD) reading of 120.3, and up more than 100% year-on-year (y/y). Results suggest inventories remain uncomfortably lean as service centers try to restock in a market where spot tons are scarce, and contract tons are delayed. September intake surged by more than 21% month over month (m/m), exceeding outbound shipments by 15%. The result: service center inventories remained down more than 14% YTD vs. the same period a year earlier, even as shipments were ~3% higher.

    Drilling activity holds in the US, eases in Canada

    The latest tally of active drilling rigs held steady in the US and slowed in Canada this week, according to oil and gas rig count data published by Baker Hughes. The US rig count remained unchanged at 603 rigs this week, maintaining a 17-month high. Compared to this time last year, there are 55 more rigs in operation today. Canada’s count decreased by five to 217 rigs this week, slowing for the first time in four weeks. Still, activity is up compared to the same week of 2025, with 19 more rigs operating today.

    Nucor Plate Group doubles fuel surcharge to $40/ton for November

    Nucor Plate Group said it will increase its fuel surcharge to $40 per short ton (st) next month, effective for all shipments beginning Nov. 1. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker first said in April that the fuel surcharge was necessary to address rising costs, initially setting the surcharge at $10/st on April 16. The company had previously maintained the $10/st surcharge rate for four straight months through Aug. 17. But it has since doubled its rate in back-to-back months—increasing its surcharge to $20/st in September, followed by its Oct. 15 notice to $40/st. “We remain committed to providing reliable service and transparency as we adapt to changing market dynamics,” Nucor said in a letter to customers on Thursday evening. Nucor announces the surcharge amount on or about the 15th of each month for shipments beginning the following month.

    SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available

    The results of the latest Steel Market Update (SMU) flat-rolled market survey are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in, look under the Data tab for Market Reports, and there you will find the Flat-Rolled Survey Results section. Previous survey results are also available on that page. If you need help accessing these results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.
    supply

    September service center shipments and inventories report

    US service centers’ flat-rolled steel supply increased marginally in September, gaining ground for only the second time all year. Shipping days of supply rose to 45.9 last month, according to SMU data. That figure marks a 3.7% increase from August. September’s result represents a modest gain after inventories hit a five-year low the previous month. But it’s nearly 16% below September 2025 levels. Sheet inventories have averaged ~45 shipping days of supply over the past six months. Flat-rolled inventories represented 2.18 months of supply in September, up 3.7% from August. However, the figure was 15.5% below September 2025. The month-on-month (m/m) gain in inventories resulted from a boost (+21.2%) in intake that was partially offset by a 5% increase in shipments.

    AISI: US steel production slips again

    Domestic raw steel output declined last week, moving lower for a second straight week after seeing notable swings over the prior several weeks, according to the latest American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) figures. Over the past six weeks, US production has fluctuated significantly, hitting a multi-year high and a six-month low. While the seesaw pattern has been extreme, output has mostly trended lower since peaking in May. And despite repeated declines in recent weeks, output remains strong compared to recent years. AISI estimated total US raw steel mill output to be 1,769,000 short tons (st) in the week ending Oct. 10 (Figure 1). Production was down 5,000 st (0.3%) from the prior week, driven by a decline in just one of five regions. So far this year, we have seen weekly production rise as high as 1,900,000 st in early September (a six-year high) and fall as low as 1,704,000 st at the start of the year.

    Nucor increases spot HR to $1,240/ton

    Nucor said on Monday, Oct. 12, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil will be $1,240 per short ton (st) this week, a $10/st increase from a week earlier. The CSP for HR coil from California Steel Industries (CSI) on the West Coast will be $1,305/st, up $15/st from the prior week. Nucor is still offering lead times of three to five weeks, according to the letter to customers. You can track mill price announcements on our website. Steel Market Update (SMU) published a weekly price assessment on Tuesday, Oct. 6, showing HR coil prices averaging $1,270/st, up $10/st from the previous week. We will update our prices on the evening of Tuesday, Oct. 13.

    SMU scrap market survey results now available

    SMU’s October ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the Pricing and Analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for Ferrous Scrap Survey results. Past scrap survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys