International Steel Prices
Lead Times Level Off After Rising Since Early January
Written by Becca Moczygemba
March 30, 2023
Steel mill leads time were largely flat this week, a trend change in a year that has seen them mostly rising, according to SMU’s latest steel market survey data.
Case in point: hot-rolled coil lead times were flat for the first time since early January. We’ve noted a similar trend in prices, which tend to trend with lead times over time.
SMU’s hot rolled lead time is approximately 6.7 weeks, the same as it was during our last market check two weeks ago.
HR lead times were 3.9 weeks in early January before extending to nearly seven weeks earlier this month. Other sheet products and plate followed roughly the same trend.
Cold rolled lead times decreased from 8.1 weeks to 8.0 weeks, while Galvanized rose from 7.8 weeks to 8 weeks. Galvalume lead times dropped to 8 weeks from 8.6 weeks.
Plate lead times rose by 0.1 weeks to 6.1 weeks from 6 weeks in mid-March.
When asked about the future direction of lead times, 54% of survey respondents reported they expect lead times to be flat into May. About 13% percent think lead times will extend, while approximately 33% think they will contract. Premium members can view a longer history of this data series and others in our market trends report.
Looking at lead times on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis can smooth out the variability of our bimonthly readings. As a 3MMA, lead times for all products are either flat or up modestly over the past month. The latest 3MMA lead time for hot rolled inched up 0.3 weeks to 5.8 weeks. Cold rolled saw a 0.2-week increase, moving up to 7.2 weeks. Galvanized lead times increased by 0.2 weeks to 7 weeks, while Galvalume lead times were flat at 7.5 weeks. Plate lead times were also unchanged at 5.4 weeks.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when the order is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
By Becca Moczygemba, becca@steelmarketupdate.com
Becca Moczygemba
Read more from Becca MoczygembaLatest in International Steel Prices
US, offshore HR prices diverge a bit more
US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices moved slightly higher again this past week but remain marginally higher than offshore material on a landed basis. Since reaching parity with import prices in late August, domestic prices have been slowly pulling ahead of imports. This has been driven by a slight deviation in price movements – slow but […]
Despite recent dip, US CR prices remain more expensive than imports
The price gap between US cold-rolled (CR) coil and offshore product has shrunk slightly this week ended Sept. 27 as stateside tags edged down. The premium slipped moderately but remains well ahead of the 10-month low from late July.
US HR prices up slightly vs. imports
US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices inched up again this past week but remain just a touch more expensive than offshore material on a landed basis.
US CR prices push ahead of imports
The price gap between US cold-rolled (CR) coil and offshore product widened this week as stateside tags inched up. The premium has been steadily increasing after falling to a 10-month low in late July.
US HR prices remain marginally higher than imports
US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices edged up this past week and remain modestly more expensive than offshore material on a landed basis. Since reaching parity with import prices in late August, domestic prices have been slowly pulling ahead of imports. The move has been driven largely by declines overseas.