Features

Dodge: January gain thanks to institutional planning
Written by David Schollaert
February 8, 2024
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) was largely unchanged in January, moving up marginally due to improved institutional conditions, according to the latest Dodge Construction Network (DCN) data.
The DMI increased in January to 184.1 from a revised December reading of 183.9, DCN said on Thursday, Feb. 8. That’s just a 0.1% increase vs. the prior month, but 3% below January 2023’s reading.
“Divergent trends between commercial and institutional planning continued in January, nullifying any growth on the overall Momentum Index,” Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for DCN, said in a statement.
“Nevertheless, lending standards began to loosen in January and the Fed is expected to begin cutting rates in the back half of the year. With this in mind, momentum should resume in commercial activity throughout 2024 as owners and developers gain confidence in market conditions for 2025,” Martin added.
Education and healthcare planning supported growth in institutional planning, while slower growth in warehouse planning pulled down the commercial side of the Index in January, reported DCN.
The commercial segment saw a 12% decline from year-ago levels, while the institutional segment was up 15% over the same period.
Overall, 15 projects valued at $100 million and up entered planning in January. Three of those projects have a $200 million value or higher, DCN said.

Dodge is the leading index for commercial real estate, using the data of planned nonresidential building projects to track spending in the important steel-consuming sector for the next 12 months. An interactive history of the DMI is available on our website.

David Schollaert
Read more from David SchollaertLatest in Features

Final Thoughts
Sure, demand isn’t as good the market had hoped it would be earlier this year. But assuming it doesn’t fall of a cliff, buyers will have to restock at some point. And that might give domestic mills enough leverage to raise prices again.

AISI: Raw steel production dips, remains near multi-month high
Following three weekly increases, domestic mill output edged lower last week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Nippon eyeing new $4B U.S. Steel mill to sweeten deal: Report
Nippon Steel could build a new domestic U.S. Steel mill with a total investment of $4 billion.

Final Thoughts
While I would anticipate market sentiment to pivot and improve if all the questions around tariffs were answered, that still leaves us with a few other factors.

Steel 101: Step inside a live steel mill
Go beyond the classroom with a behind-the-scenes mill tour at SMU’s next Steel 101 – an immersive, expert-led introduction to steel production and market dynamics.