Chicago Business Barometer ticked up in August, remains low

July now marks the ninth consecutive month the Barometer has indicated deteriorating business conditions. Since September 2022, the index has only indicated expansion once in November 2023. The index has averaged 42.9 across the first eight months of this year, and one year prior it was also in contraction territory at 48.7.

The MNI report accredits August’s marginal increase to improvements in the new orders, production, and supplier delivery subcomponents, noting that supplier deliveries climbed to a 22-month high. Two subcomponents saw declines from July to August, order backlogs and employment, with order backlogs receding to a four-month low.  

Respondents were asked two special questions this month:

Q: How are the upcoming November elections affecting your hiring plans?

A: Half of respondents indicated the elections will have no impact on hiring plans, followed by 30% saying it will have a minimal impact and other factors are more important. Just 17% responded the elections have them planning to hire less workers. The small remainder (3%) say they are hiring more permanent workers.

Q: With the potential for more adverse weather, are you putting into place more contingency plans?

A: Almost half responded they will not make any additional preparations. The remaining half was divided; 27% said they are putting more contingency plans in place, while 23% said this was unknown to their firm at this time.

View the full release here.