Economy

Beige Book paints bleak picture of US economic landscape

Written by David Schollaert

October 24, 2024

Growth in the US economy continues to crawl with little change in most districts. The Federal Reserve’s October Beige Book report showed three-quarters of reporting districts with flat or declining economic activity.

The Fed’s Oct. 23 Beige Book report said economic growth was flat or declining in ten of its 12 districts. That’s up from nine districts that reported weak conditions in the early September report.

Manufacturing activity declined in most districts, but two reported modest growth.

Some districts mentioned high interest rates, while others said housing activity continued to expand across the country. Uncertainty about the path of mortgage rates was still the culprit, keeping many on the sidelines.

The employment rate across all districts did increase slightly, though consumers were seen as increasingly sensitive to high prices, the survey found.

The Beige Book is a summary report of commentary on current economic conditions across the Federal Reserve’s 12 districts. It really is a book—it includes a ton of information. You can access the report for a deeper dive into economic activity in specific regions across the country.

Below is a summary of three of the districts, with a focus on manufacturing.

Philadelphia district

Business activity continued to decline in the Philadelphia district. Consumer spending fell modestly, and nonmanufacturing activity pulled back slightly.

Employment appeared to rise marginally after slipping in the last period. Wage growth continued at a modest pace, as did reported rises in input costs and prices. Expectations for future growth rose, becoming more widespread for both manufacturers and nonmanufacturers.

Chicago district

Activity increased slightly in the Chicago district, which includes northern Illinois and Indiana, southern Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa. Consumer spending rose modestly, as did employment. Construction and real estate activity were flat, and manufacturing activity edged down.

Prices were up modestly, wages rose moderately, and financial conditions loosened slightly.

San Francisco district

San Francisco, the Fed’s 12th district, encompasses the states of California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Alaska, and Hawaii.

Economic activity was steady in the region, though labor availability improved again with a positive move on wages. Overall prices were largely stable, though retail sales and activity in manufacturing and consumer services softened.

Demand for business services improved, while conditions in real estate, financial services, agriculture, and resource-related industries were largely unchanged.

David Schollaert

David Schollaert is deputy editor-in-chief for Steel Market Update. David joined SMU after more than a decade in the metals and mining industry in a myriad of different roles. Much of his early experience and expertise were within the coverage and analysis of steel-making raw materials and served previously as senior editor of the CRU Prices Service. Most recently, however, before his return to market analysis, David held roles as a metals buyer and an operations manager for raw material suppliers. He can be contacted at david@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-720-1008.

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