CRU
November 8, 2024
Written by Anton Perevezentev & Linda Lin & Puneet Paliwal
China’s steel export volumes reached 11.2 million metric tons (mt) in October, the highest monthly level since September 2015. Steel export prices were mostly stable in China and India this week ended Nov. 8, while in Turkey steel export prices increased week over week (w/w).
Open interest on CME Group’s hot-rolled (HR) coil futures contract typically builds throughout the month before dropping at the end of the month alongside contract settlement. Analysis in this report is based on an early month view of this open interest as well as prices. Notably, open interest for the HR coil contract is currently at a record high of 849,240 short tons (st) or 42,462 contracts. Open interest is up 13.8% m/m and 66% higher from the 511,480 st of open interest a year ago. We have found that open interest often rises alongside higher physical prices and that has proven true in this current market environment. Physical prices continue to rise, supported by not only rising demand and domestic production issues, but also on government-restricted imports.
CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.
CRU Research Principal speaks about the implication of Mesabi Metallics' proposed steel mill in Iowa.
CME Group’s HR coil futures have had a volatile stretch over the past few weeks.
Americas wire and cable demand held firm through H1 2026, as data center and energy infrastructure buildouts, driven by wider electrification and power supply investments, more than offset weakness in traditional construction sectors such as residential