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    Analysis

    October 15, 2026

    CRU: HR coil futures re-price 2027 forward curve

    Written by Josh Spoores

    CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4’26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80/st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st. 

    While the forward curve has priced in minimal gains over the coming months from today’s spot price, what is notable is the Q4’27 price of $1,132/st, just over a $150/st decline from today’s spot price. This backwardation suggests the market is currently experiencing the tightest period of supply. Yet, as we have seen over the past few months, these longer-dated prices can quickly rise if supply remains constrained by further production issues or additional tariffs. 

    Josh Spoores

    Josh Spoores joined CRU in 2012 as Principal Analyst and editor of CRU’s Steel Sheet Monitor and Steel Sheet Market Outlook. During that time, Mr. Spoores forecast prices, demand, production and trade of sheet and plate products for both Canada and the US for CRU's Steel Sheet & Plate Market Outlooks. Today, he heads up steel analysis and forecasting for the Americas region. Prior to joining CRU, he was a Senior Marketing Analyst at Severstal North America, founder of Steel Reality, a forward-looking market analysis firm using a models-based approach for flat rolled and plate steel. He was also the Market Research Manager at Majestic Steel USA, one of the largest flat rolled service centres in the USA. He has a BSc in Business Administration from Bowling Green State University.

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