Contributor: Josh Spoores

CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.

CME Group’s HR coil futures have had a volatile stretch over the past few weeks.

CME Group’s HR coil futures continue to show a near-term price peak, yet prices on the forward curve have increased for not only the balance of 2026, but for 2027 as well.

This CRU insight is the third installment on how El Niño may impact the steel and steelmaking raw materials markets.

CRU's Josh Spoores takes a deep dive into the HR futures market.

CRU: US Midwest sheet prices have continued to rise from our mid-January assessment.

This CRU Insight examines how the increase in Section 232 tariffs on steel to challenging levels will lead to significatively higher prices for end consumers in the US market.

In a social media post, President Donald Trump said a planned partnership between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel will add $14 billion to the US economy and ensure USS remains headquartered in Pittsburgh.

On 4 March, new 25% blanket tariffs across all products exported to the USA from Canada and Mexico are now in effect. The only exception is Canadian energy products, which will be assessed a 10% tariff.

US steel prices set to jump after President Trump levies new tariffs.

This CRU Insight discusses a few key topics our clients have been asking about as 2024 comes to a close and 2025 begins. This piece introduces these topics briefly now before we discuss them in more detail in a webinar in January 2025. In previous years, we have published a year-end Insight on our ‘Top […]

The president-elect has wasted no time in using the threat of tariffs to reopen negotiations and, ideally, score other political wins along the way.

Now that the dust has settled from the US election, as have the immediate reactions in the equity, bond, and commodity markets, this is a prime opportunity to look at how a second Trump presidency might affect the US steel market.

CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores shares insight into the hot-rolled coil futures market.

CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores shares with SMU his analysis of the hot-rolled coil futures market.

The recently announced acquisition of Stelco by Cleveland-Cliffs (Cliffs), priced at nearly three times book value, provides a great price for Stelco shareholders. And various synergies will likely leave Cliffs with tremendous runway for further growth in this deal. Cliffs expects to close this deal in 2024 Q4 upon government approval. This approval is expected but not a given.

Nucor’s Consumer Spot Price (CSP), a legitimate mill offer price, is a potential disruptor to North American steel sheet commercial and procurement strategies. We will dive into the details of what we think the CSP is and why we believe it is a potential disruption to how the North American sheet market operates.

Annual contract negotiations between buyers and mills in the US flat-rolled steel market are picking up pace as both look to lock in volume for the coming year. As these contracts are finalized, we expect that changes in the market will impact how 2024 contracts are ultimately structured. The primary change in the market is […]

July 2023- Facetime: Steel market analyst JOSH SPOORES talks with Modern Metals about CRU steel prices Q: Josh, you have been involved in the steel industry for quite a while. Can you give MM’s readers a quick summary of your experience?  A: I joined the industry in 2005 and worked at a mill, service center, my own research company and then have been at CRU since 2012. I started learning the industry at Majestic Steel USA. They bought and sold in the spot market and carry a huge amount of inventory in anticipation of sales. Working there taught me an incredible amount about procurement strategy as well as how to develop a unique brand of market analysis. It’s this real-world analysis that matters—immersing yourself in data points and information, but, at the same time, making sure to eliminate any excess noise.

At the start of each year, CRU continues to feature top expectations and outliers for the year ahead. This annual list of expectations is a thought piece, meant to stimulate internal discussions, scenario analysis, and strategic planning around potential risks to the markets we cover. This 2023 edition covers six expectations and three potential outliers. […]

By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, Feb. 9 The global sheet market often exhibits price trends that vary by region. Occasionally, prices do move in the same direction, though on these occasions, prices typically reflect a unified trend of global costs or inventory change.   In the current sheet […]

By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, Feb. 9 Sheet prices in the North American sheet market have continued to collapse due to a temporary supply surplus. Since prices peaked in late September/early October, the price decline for HR and HDG coil has been at a larger amount in USD […]

By Principal Analyst Josh Spoores from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, Jan. 22 Trends in the North American sheet market have picked up where 2021 left off, particularly a continued decline in sheet prices. Various supply pressures have overwhelmed demand and led to lower sheet prices in all North American markets. In the U.S. Midwest […]

By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Monitor, Dec. 15 Seasonal pressures are starting to temporarily slow demand for some steel products. For sheet, this weakness is adding to a monumental shift in supply fundamentals. For other products, an unseasonably warm start to December has allowed construction demand to remain stronger than normal. […]

By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, Nov. 10 Global sheet prices have continued to fall, though declines have not been consistent across all regions. Overall, CRU’s Global Flat Products Steel Price Indicator (CRUspi flats) fell for the second consecutive month, declining by 2.9% and is now at its lowest […]

By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores Trade representatives from the USA and Europe came to an agreement at the end of October in regard to the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. The Department of Commerce further announced on Oct. 31 that consultations regarding the trade of steel remain ongoing between the USA and […]

By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Over the past five weeks since we last reviewed the CME Group’s HR coil futures market, there has been a renewed surge in volatility. Spot prices of physical HR coil have clearly plateaued, yet more likely started a new downtrend, and futures prices […]

By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor After 14 consecutive months of rising global sheet prices, CRU’s Global Flat Products Steel Price Indicator (CRUspi flats) has fallen m/m. This indicator fell 3.5% as sheet prices continue to fall across most regional markets. The U.S. Midwest market remains the last holdout […]

By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor North American sheet prices are lower m/m as prices in the U.S. have finally started to fall, at least for HR coil. Over the past several weeks, the amount and overall volume of spot transactions between mills and buyers have slowed, yet we […]

By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Market fundamentals in the North American sheet market continue to evolve and clearly suggest that supply tightness is easing. From a broad point of view, these fundamentals include rising supply, service center inventories that are balanced with outbound shipments, and demand growth that […]