• Skip to main content

    CRU

    December 6, 2024

    CRU: Trump tariff threat signals early start to trade negotiations

    Written by Josh Spoores

    We previously published an insight on Nov. 18 discussing how a second Trump presidency might affect steel products in the USA. Our key takeaway was that President Trump would wield tariffs liberally, which would lead to higher demand for steel over a two-to-four-year time frame – as long as the administration can remain focused and on track for this outcome. 

    One way of using tariffs in this manner is to reopen negotiations on trade agreements and, ideally, score other political wins along the way. President-elect Trump has wasted no time in this endeavor as he has now swung his tariff hammer eight weeks before he returns as president.

    Josh Spoores

    Josh Spoores joined CRU in 2012 as Principal Analyst and editor of CRU’s Steel Sheet Monitor and Steel Sheet Market Outlook. During that time, Mr. Spoores forecast prices, demand, production and trade of sheet and plate products for both Canada and the US for CRU's Steel Sheet & Plate Market Outlooks. Today, he heads up steel analysis and forecasting for the Americas region. Prior to joining CRU, he was a Senior Marketing Analyst at Severstal North America, founder of Steel Reality, a forward-looking market analysis firm using a models-based approach for flat rolled and plate steel. He was also the Market Research Manager at Majestic Steel USA, one of the largest flat rolled service centres in the USA. He has a BSc in Business Administration from Bowling Green State University.

    Read more from Josh Spoores

    Latest in CRU

    CRU: HR coil futures re-price 2027 forward curve

    CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.