CRU: HRC futures market prices in rosy Q4’24 and 2025

Prices in the hot-rolled coil futures market have fallen m/m in early September, yet they remain little changed since our last review on Aug. 14. As of Monday, Sept. 9, futures prices showed an average of $753 per short ton for Q4’24 and an average of $817/st for all of 2025. Spot prices, meanwhile, have slowly inched higher after mills were able to stop discounting orders. Yet our most recent price assessment for HR coil remains below recent mill asking prices.  

While the slow acceptance of higher mill asking prices is starting to come about, the futures market seems particularly optimistic about further gains to come. The December 2024 contract was near steady m/m at $780/st vs. our Sept. 11 price assessment of $698/st. Just two months ago, in July, we suggested that the November and December contracts looked interesting as, at the time, physical buyers were able to buy HR coil well below $650/st and could sell it forward for nearly $800/st. Perhaps some of this took place as the amount of open interest in the December contract surged higher, having gained 57% over the last two months.