Tag: Hot Rolled Futures

In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.

CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.

I ended my previous column expecting some eventful times ahead for HRC futures. That proved true almost immediately. I ended my previous column expecting some eventful times ahead for HRC futures. That proved true almost immediately. By that weekend, the tentative US-Canada trade agreement had fallen through, and the futures market began a sharp recovery. Since then, the curve has not only erased the initial selloff but has moved well beyond where it stood before the agreement was announced. The progression of the curve tells the story. Following news of the tentative Canada agreement, HRC futures sold off broadly (orange from purple), with the belly bearing the brunt of the move.

CME Group’s HR coil futures have had a volatile stretch over the past few weeks.

Just when things start to feel a little same old, same old in the futures market, that sneaky volatility shows up.

CME Group’s HR coil futures continue to show a near-term price peak, yet prices on the forward curve have increased for not only the balance of 2026, but for 2027 as well.

CRU's Josh Spoores takes a deep dive into the HR futures market.

In my previous column on April 23, I posed a question: whether supply can respond sufficiently under current conditions. Since then, the US HRC futures curve has continued to move higher and further out.

As the steel market works through the first month of Q2 and the spring outage season, the US HRC futures curve continues to reflect a market adjusting to tightening conditions. The recalibration of near-term expectations sets the stage for how the curve has developed in recent weeks.

A month ago, the steel market was defined by stability. Prices had firmed and held, and the HRC futures curve appeared to be absorbing strength and follow-through rather than rejecting it. Since then, that stability has evolved into something more meaningful, repricing.

Since my last column, confidence within the physical market has been restored. However, that does not mean necessarily confidence in the outlook for demand. More so, it's confidence that better pricing is not lurking around the corner. So where do we go from there?  

The market has entered into a bit of a quiet recalibration, the kind of pause that feels like a held breath. Prices have stopped falling. Lead times have stretched just enough to create firmer footing. The urgency of downside risk has faded, but maybe (not quite yet) moved on.

As another month goes by and another futures columnist starts by saying “not much to see here,” I understand that a reader might flip their brain to skim mode.

The US hot-rolled coil (HRC) market feels steadier as the 4th quarter begins - not strong, but no longer slipping either.

As Labor Day marks the transition into fall, the steel market enters September with a similar sense of change. Supply-side fundamentals are beginning to show signs of restraint: imports are limited, outages loom, and production is capped, setting the stage for a market that feels steady on the surface but still unsettled underneath.

Could we see an abrupt shift now that oil prices have spiked higher? Will we see a rebound in the rig count? Will this create a snap-loading effect (think waterski rope), where the industry suddenly does a 180-degree turn? If so, will that bring with it increased demand for steel products used by the energy industry?

The speed and scale of recent moves are reminders of just how sensitive HRC futures remain to structural shifts and sentiment cues.

Which way will the herd move?

The market appears to be pausing after a turbulent run. But tension remains just beneath the surface. With net long positioning still elevated, sentiment-driven selling could quickly reignite volatility. Still, supply constraints and limited imports are laying the groundwork for a resilient physical market. This moment of calm feels more like a crossroads than a conclusion.

Import arbitrations expressed via futures may become enticing as coil price spreads expand. The spread market in CME US hot-rolled coil (HRC) is currently navigating a period of volatility, with prices fluctuating post-election, leaving traders uncertain about the market's direction.

No more excuses! The election is over. Donald Trump will be inaugurated on Monday January 20 with the Republican party in control of Congress. Now, it is time to get back to work!

CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores shares insight into the hot-rolled coil futures market.

While the English language is vast, there is not an endless number of ways to say, “no major changes have transpired.” And if anyone has been tasked with talking about steel price changes in physical and futures US domestic steel market over the last four months, they are probably stretching their ability to its limit.

Flack Global Metals (FGM) Founder and CEO Jeremy Flack will sit down with SMU for a Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Oct. 2, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free for anyone to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU subscribers.

Thanks to everyone who attended our Steel Hedging 101 workshop in Chicago on Wednesday. I learned a lot from StoneX Group’s Spencer Johnson, who instructs the course, and from your good questions. One thing that Spencer said sticks with me as I write this column. Namely, that momentum drives steel prices more than other commodity markets. If you watch steel futures, you’ll see up days and down days. But it’s rare to see the momentum shifting back and forth within any given day.

Flack Global Metals (FGM) Founder and CEO Jeremy Flack will sit down with SMU for a Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Oct. 2, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free for anyone to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU subscribers.

CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores shares with SMU his analysis of the hot-rolled coil futures market.

It had been a relatively quiet and steady CME HRC futures market since the end of August. That was upended by Thursday’s news that instead of a two-week maintenance outage, Cleveland-Cliffs would hot idle the C-6 blast furnace at its Cleveland Works for an uncertain period of time. The CME October HRC contract, HRCV4, gained $22 per short ton (st) on the day to provisionally close at $744/st on Thursday. The first and second quarter futures strips of 2025 gained $25/st and $24/st to provisionally settle at $823/st and $829/st, respectively.

On Aug. 14, the chairman of the world’s largest steel producer, China’s Baowu Steel Group, had some alarming news. He told staff at the firm’s mid-year meeting that conditions in China are like a “harsh winter” that will be “longer, colder and more difficult to endure than expected.”

The CME steel futures complex saw a slight decrease in activity from levels seen at the end of June. This has coincided with a notable decline in flat prices for the nearby futures contract, now August HRC, which is lower by $81 per short ton (st) since last writing on June 13. It settled at $672/st on July 17.