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    HRC futures: Ferrous futures in consolidation mode

    Written by Dave Feldstein


    The March scrap trade is set to pick up steam next week. The March CME busheling future settled on Thursday at $440, indicating a $49 month-over-month (m/m) decline. Since peaking at $565 on Dec. 13, the March future has dropped $125. The March Turkish scrap future settled on Thursday at $392, indicating a tight $48 premium for busheling over Turkish scrap. The March Turkish scrap future settled at $421.50 on Jan. 29, dropping $29.50 since then.

    March CME busheling future $/lt rolling and LME Turkish scrap future $/mt

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    Plate supply squeeze tightens as demand presses higher

    The domestic plate market is showing few signs of relief for steel buyers. Lead times are stretching well beyond seasonal norms, spot availability has all but evaporated, and mills are drawing hard lines on contract volumes heading into 2027 negotiations. And the supply squeeze will likely intensify in a market that some industry sources say is structurally undersupplied because of stringent US trade and tariff policies. Imports have been arriving in larger volumes, and the expectation is they will continue to tick higher into 2027. The big question is whether those foreign tons will arrive in volumes sufficient to provide the relief steel consumers want.