HR Futures: Financial players bullish on price, physical market participants not

As you head into the long weekend, here is a recap of where things stand in hot-rolled (HR) coil futures along with some key datapoints.

Nucor increased its consumer spot (CSP) for hot-rolled coil (HRC) to $910 per short ton (st), up $10/st from last week. Backwardation persists in the forward HRC, with front months refusing to cross the $900/st level. The anchor CRU index print on Wednesday is a key cause for relative strength in July ‘25. But heading into Aug. ‘25-Oct. ’25, we see an average decline of ~$15/st per month.

Joshua Toney

Joshua Toney brings nearly a decade of experience across the ferrous supply chain to this column. He began his career in the physical markets with The David J. Joseph Company (a Nucor subsidiary), trading scrap and metallics across the US. He later helped build out the ferrous derivatives desk at Freight Investor Services (FIS) and most recently led North American ferrous derivatives trading at Marex. Today, he is the Principal of Corsair Elements LLC, an independent research and advisory firm focused on ferrous market intelligence and risk management strategies. His background spans physical and derivative markets, offering readers a unique, integrated perspective on HRC pricing, market structure, and risk transfer in the steel value chain.

Joshua Toney

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