Contributor: Joshua Toney

Joshua Toney

Joshua Toney brings nearly a decade of experience across the ferrous supply chain to this column. He began his career in the physical markets with The David J. Joseph Company (a Nucor subsidiary), trading scrap and metallics across the US. He later helped build out the ferrous derivatives desk at Freight Investor Services (FIS) and most recently led North American ferrous derivatives trading at Marex. Today, he is the Principal of Corsair Elements LLC, an independent research and advisory firm focused on ferrous market intelligence and risk management strategies. His background spans physical and derivative markets, offering readers a unique, integrated perspective on HRC pricing, market structure, and risk transfer in the steel value chain.

HR Futures: Forward curve shifts lower, structure maintains

Scraping lower-quartile $800s on nearby futures is bringing limited trading ideas for CME hot-rolled coil (HRC) at present.

HR Futures: Curve switches gears

After a period of backwardation driven by headlines and CRU index anchoring, the CME HRC curve structure has undergone a notable shift.

HR Futures: Financial players bullish on price, physical market participants not

We can interpret that managed money still has expectations of price strength while physical participants are running closer to a balance on a net basis.

Market pressures trigger HR futures reversal

Market dynamics are shifting rapidly, with futures pricing diverging from physical fundamentals, creating a complex landscape for steel traders.

HR Futures: Major trade developments lift the ferrous complex

Headline risk has returned to the ferrous complex, with both hot-rolled coil (HRC) and busheling ferrous scrap (BCH) markets surging in response to fresh trade restrictions.

HR Futures: What’s next for HRC and busheling prices?

Since the publication of our last market update on Dec. 10, several notable developments have shaped the landscape

HR futures: Volatility, tariffs, and global shifts - What's next for prices in 2025?

Import arbitrations expressed via futures may become enticing as coil price spreads expand. The spread market in CME US hot-rolled coil (HRC) is currently navigating a period of volatility, with prices fluctuating post-election, leaving traders uncertain about the market's direction.