HR Futures: Forward curve shifts lower, structure maintains

Scraping lower-quartile $800s on nearby futures is bringing limited trading ideas for CME hot-rolled coil (HRC) at present.

The Nucor Consumer Spot Price (CSP) moved down $10 per short ton (st) this week to $865/st. CRU posted at $832/st this week a -$6/st drop week over week. The Index justifies the weakness in Sep’25 futures pricing, and we are witnessing marginal carry expansion with the step lower in front-end pricing.

Busheling Scrap Futures

Joshua Toney

Joshua Toney brings nearly a decade of experience across the ferrous supply chain to this column. He began his career in the physical markets with The David J. Joseph Company (a Nucor subsidiary), trading scrap and metallics across the US. He later helped build out the ferrous derivatives desk at Freight Investor Services (FIS) and most recently led North American ferrous derivatives trading at Marex. Today, he is the Principal of Corsair Elements LLC, an independent research and advisory firm focused on ferrous market intelligence and risk management strategies. His background spans physical and derivative markets, offering readers a unique, integrated perspective on HRC pricing, market structure, and risk transfer in the steel value chain.

Joshua Toney

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