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    August 21, 2025

    HR Futures: Forward curve shifts lower, structure maintains

    Written by Joshua Toney

    Scraping lower-quartile $800s on nearby futures is bringing limited trading ideas for CME hot-rolled coil (HRC) at present. 

    The Nucor Consumer Spot Price (CSP) moved down $10 per short ton (st) this week to $865/st. CRU posted at $832/st this week a -$6/st drop week over week. The Index justifies the weakness in Sep’25 futures pricing, and we are witnessing marginal carry expansion with the step lower in front-end pricing. 

    Joshua Toney

    Joshua Toney brings nearly a decade of experience across the ferrous supply chain to this column. He began his career in the physical markets with The David J. Joseph Company (a Nucor subsidiary), trading scrap and metallics across the US. He later helped build out the ferrous derivatives desk at Freight Investor Services (FIS) and most recently led North American ferrous derivatives trading at Marex. Today, he is the Principal of Corsair Elements LLC, an independent research and advisory firm focused on ferrous market intelligence and risk management strategies. His background spans physical and derivative markets, offering readers a unique, integrated perspective on HRC pricing, market structure, and risk transfer in the steel value chain.

    Read more from Joshua Toney

    Latest in Sheet

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    Nucor said on Monday, Oct. 12, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil will be $1,240 per short ton (st) this week, a $10/st increase from a week earlier. The CSP for HR coil from California Steel Industries (CSI) on the West Coast will be $1,305/st, up $15/st from the prior week. Nucor is still offering lead times of three to five weeks, according to the letter to customers. You can track mill price announcements on our website. Steel Market Update (SMU) published a weekly price assessment on Tuesday, Oct. 6, showing HR coil prices averaging $1,270/st, up $10/st from the previous week. We will update our prices on the evening of Tuesday, Oct. 13.

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