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    CRU: Excessive global supply could hit rebar mill investments in US

    Written by Alexandra Anderson


    Following the onset of the war in Ukraine in March 2022, concerns about import availability and expectations of rising demand from President Biden’s Infrastructure Bill pushed US rebar prices to record highs. In response, a flurry of new mills and capacity expansions were announced to meet the rise in demand from growth in the construction sector.

    Three years later, stronger end-use consumption has been slow to materialize, and President Trump’s rapid changes to tariffs and trade policy have muddied the economic outlook. Revisions to Section 232 have leveled the playing field in terms of imports, and some countries that were only occasionally present in the US market are starting to gain market share.

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    CRU: HR coil futures re-price 2027 forward curve

    CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.