Analysis
August 13, 2026
CRU: HR coil futures pricing in stronger market as volumes rise
Written by Josh Spoores
This item was first published by CRU. To learn about CRU’s global commodities research and analysis services, visit www.crugroup.com.
CME Group’s HR coil futures continue to show a near-term price peak, yet prices on the forward curve have increased for not only the balance of 2026, but for 2027 as well.
As of market close on Aug. 10, HR coil futures for September through December 2026 had risen to an average of $1,188 per short ton (st) from $1,136/st on July 6. For 2026, actual settled prices through July and futures prices through December have priced in an average of $1,107/st.
A year ago, the forward curve had priced in an average of just $880/st. In hindsight, this was clearly an opportunity for buyers to lock in their price risk exposure through futures or via fixed-price contracts. Today, the 2027 the forward curve is pricing in an average of $1,085/st. This represents a discount of just over $100/st from current spot prices, which may be attractive for some buyers looking to mitigate a portion of their future price risk exposure. And while spot prices are within a week of reaching their highest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the forward curve in 2027 may also be attractive to natural sellers such as producers or distributors looking to lock in a portion of future sales.
These higher physical and futures prices have led to higher levels of open interest in these futures contracts. Overall open interest as of this past Monday was near 820,000 st, a gain of 84.9% year over year (y/y). Open interest often fluctuates throughout the month. In July, it reached a peak of 905,260 tons before the July contracts settled. Daily trading volumes often reach 25,000 st/day, which has grown to support price risk management throughout the supply chain.
