SMU Data and Models

SMU's December at a glance

Written by Brett Linton

January 2, 2025

SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of important steel market metrics for the previous month. Our latest report includes data updated through Dec. 31.

Sheet and plate prices saw little movement across the month of December. Sheet prices remained near multi-month lows, and plate prices continued to tick lower from their mid-2022 peak. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator remained at Neutral for both sheet and plate products.

Following a relatively stable November, steel scrap prices declined in December for each of the products we track. Busheling and heavy melt scrap (HMS) both eased to a four-month low, while shredded scrap prices receded to lows not seen in over a year. Buyers are cautiously optimistic that prices will recover in 2025.  

Both of our Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices remained positive throughout December. As of Dec. 18, Current Sentiment showed that buyers were optimistic about business conditions, though not as confident as they were earlier in the year. Our Future Sentiment Index indicated a very strong outlook for early 2025, reaching a one-year high.

Buyers continue to report short steel mill lead times. As of the week before Christmas, production times were not far above the lows seen in July and November. Sheet production times have been historically low since May, and plate since July.

By the end of last month, four out of every five steel buyers we polled reported that mills are willing to negotiate new order pricing. Negotiation rates have been high for the majority of 2024, especially in the latter half of the year.

See the table below for other key December metrics (click here to expand). Historical monthly review table can be found on our website.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.

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