Chicago Business Barometer rises in January

The increase was driven by a jump in new orders and production, the report stated, but falls in supplier deliveries, employment, and order backlogs moderated the increase.

A look at some of the numbers

New orders rebounded 13.8 points, reversing last month’s decline. This leaves it the highest level since September 2024 and above the 2024 average, the report stated.

Production expanded 4.0 points to a similar level to that seen in November, the report found.

Employment dropped 9.0 points to the lowest level recorded since June 2020. Two-thirds of respondents reported unchanged employment while nearly 30% reported lower levels of employment, the report stated.

Inventories gained 14.9 points, returning to expansionary levels for the first time since November 2023. This is after four consecutive months of decline, the report found.

Prices paid eased 2.7 points, the fourth successive decline and the lowest level since July 2024.

The survey ran from Jan. 1 to Jan. 16. The Chicago Business Barometer asked one special question: “How do you see business activity growing in the first half of 2025, by percent?”

Slightly more than half (54%) answered between 0% – 5%, while one quarter expected no growth.