US scrap market looking soft for May

The weather is more springlike across the northern tier and, as always, it’s bringing out a lot of scrap. However, this is all obsolete “peddler scrap” and car bodies along with demolition. It is unclear how much prime scrap will be generated, but the presumption is less than in March. 

Ohio/Western Pennsylvania

In the Ohio and Western Pennsylvania areas, mills are expecting a $20-30-per-gross-ton (gt) reduction in obsolescent grades, according to a broker serving consumers there. There is uncertainty about how much #1 Busheling can drop. 

This region, among others, has been the beneficiary of East Coast scrap, mainly shredded, which normally goes into the export markets.

Export markets

The export markets have lagged the domestic in pricing since February, and there has been a reduction in the tonnages heading across the Atlantic.

Over the last 10 days, the export markets in Turkey have weakened substantially, as reported by SMU last week.

This has continued this week, with US sales prices dropping further into the mid-$320s per metric ton (mt) CFR Turkey for HMS 80/20.

So, the question is, how much tonnage will the exporters direct into the domestic market? It will depend on how far the US market declines in May. But from the looks of things, they are selling now in anticipation of further steep domestic price erosion.     

Midwest

A source in the Midwest region said he is expecting shredded scrap to drop a full $40/gt, but thinks busheling may move roughly sideways to down slightly given reduced automotive production and sales. He went on to say, cars are still moving off the lots slowly. The dealers have well over a 90-day inventory and things are not looking better. 

South

In the South, sources there are predicting a serious drop in prices over the next several months. One source predicted downward prices for May and thinks busheling will not be down as much as shredded.

This could result in a $30/gt spread between busheling and shredded. 

Last month, prime scrap only dropped ~$20/gt, while shredded plummeted $40. Many speculated the proposed 10-30% tariffs on pig iron resulted in busheling being a “better buy.”

As we approach the May market, with pig iron strengthening, in addition to the tariff, the same could be said.    

Great Lakes

SMU reached out to an executive at a steelmaker in the Great Lakes area to learn what actual buyers are predicting. This source agreed that obsolescent scrap will be down substantially, especially if the interior mills keep receiving offers from the East Coast dealers. On primes, like #1 busheling, he suggested, it will also drop in sympathy to the decline in other grades, despite less generation.