April service center shipments and inventories report

Flat rolled

US service centers’ flat-rolled steel supply edged up in April, as shipments slowed. At the end of April, US service centers carried 57.6 shipping days of supply, according to adjusted SMU data. This is up from 56.4 shipping days in March and nearly even with April 2024’s 57.8 shipping days of supply. In terms of months on hand, supply was steady with 2.62 months of supply in April vs. 2.68 months of supply in March.

April had 22 shipping days, compared to March’s 21, though some service centers had 21 shipping days in April due to the Good Friday holiday. Despite some differences in the number of shipping days observed in April, what’s clear is that shipments slowed from robust tariff-fueled shipments seen in March. Flat-rolled steel inventories in April were at higher-than-historical averages compared to shipments.

The drop-off in shipments could be a sign that downstream manufacturers have sufficient inventory. We have seen reduced buying interest at the mills. SMU’s latest survey on May 2 showed 68% of manufacturers were maintaining inventory and 32% were reducing inventory. The survey reported no manufacturers were building inventory.

Material on order for flat roll as a percentage of inventories in April was consistent with a year ago totals but lower vs. March. With the lower shipping level, material on order represented slightly higher shipping days of supply in April vs. March.

Plate

US service center plate supply jumped month on month (m/m), with a sharp drop in shipments in April. At the end of April, service centers stocked 54.5 shipping days of plate supply, up from 45.7 shipping days in March. This is still well below historical levels and down from the 58.3 shipping days of plate supply in April 2024.

Plate supply represented 2.48 months of supply in April, up from 2.18 months in March. Like sheet, plate shipments also reached a high-water mark in March. The daily shipping rate fell 15% m/m. With the massive drop-off in shipments in April, year-to-date plate shipments are flat.

The drop-off in plate shipments has put plate supply in balance with outbound demand, though supply is still very low compared to historical levels. A seasonal pickup in demand could make plate supply tight again.

Meanwhile, plate on order has also fallen in terms of total volume, though with the lower shipping rate, the material on order represents more supply. At the end of April, material on order as a percentage of inventories in April was down vs. March. The material on order represented an uptick in shipping days of supply in April vs. March.

Plate lead times remain nearly flat m/m at 5.88 weeks, according to the latest SMU survey. Plate mills had controlled order entry in the first few months of the year. Recently, though, market contacts have reported that mills have eased on supply restrictions. While the plate demand outlook is mixed, inventories remain at historic low levels, even lower than the supply chain shortages in 2021 and 2022.