Economy

Manufacturing in New York state contracts again in May

May 15, 2025

Manufacturing activity in New York state declined for the third consecutive month, according to the May Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Responding firms continue to forecast weaker business conditions in the coming months.

“Business activity continued to decline modestly in New York State in May,” commented New York Fed economic research advisor Richard Deitz. He explained that, “New orders and shipments increased after a decline last month, while supply availability worsened.”

The full release is available here.

The General Business Conditions Index contracted by one point in May to -9.2. While down month over month, the index is not as negative as it was in March, when we saw a one-year low of -20.0. This is a diffusion index, where a positive reading signifies expansion from the prior month, zero indicates no change, and a negative reading signifies contraction.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index has only signaled improving business conditions for eight months in the last two years. The Index stood at -14.3 the same month last year.

Trends

To smooth monthly fluctuations and better highlight trends, the Index can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA). On this basis, the Index declined nearly five points from April to May to a one-year low of -12.4 (Figure 1).

Recall that in 2024 we saw dramatic movements in the 3MMA. It touched a near four-year low of -22.3 in March 2024, then rebounded by November to reach a near three-year high of 10.3.

An interactive history of the Empire State Manufacturing Index is available here on our website.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.