Manufacturing in New York state recovers in July

“Business activity picked up slightly in New York State in July, representing the first increase in several months,” said Richard Deitz, economic research adviser at the New York Fed. “Shipments grew, and employment picked up for a second consecutive month. Firms remained fairly optimistic about the outlook for future conditions.”

Manufacturing activity saw its first positive reading since February, the survey found.

The General Business Conditions Index climbed 22 points to 5.5. This is a diffusion index, where a positive reading signifies expansion from the prior month, zero indicates no change, and a negative reading signifies contraction. The Index stood at -6.6 the same month last year.

While a dimmer outlook prevailed from February through May, firms turned positive in June, with a noticeable boost in July. Conditions are expected to improve over the next six months. The index for future General Business Conditions improved by 2.9 points to 24.1, suggesting that, on the whole, businesses expect activity to increase in the months ahead.

Trends

To smooth monthly fluctuations and better highlight trends, the index can be calculated as a three-month moving average (3MMA). On this basis, the index improved by 4.5 points to -6.6 (Figure 1).

Recall that in 2024, we saw dramatic movements in the 3MMA. It touched a near four-year low of -22.3 in March 2024, then rebounded by November to reach a near three-year high of 10.3. Just two months ago, the 3MMA reading was at a 12-month low of 12.4.

An interactive history of the Empire State Manufacturing Index is available on our website.