Manufacturing in New York state improves again in August

“Manufacturing activity grew modestly in New York State in August, with the survey’s headline index rising to its highest level since November 2024. New orders and shipments increased,” said Richard Deitz, economic research adviser at the New York Fed. “While firms expect business conditions to improve, optimism edged down compared to last month.”

Manufacturing activity picked up for a second straight month. It’s just the second positive reading since February, the survey found.

The General Business Conditions Index rose 6.4 points to 11.9. This is a diffusion index, where a positive reading signifies expansion from the prior month, zero indicates no change, and a negative reading signifies contraction. The Index stood at -4.7 in the same month last year.

While a dimmer outlook prevailed from February through May, that turned the other way in June, with steady gains in July and August. And while conditions are expected to improve over the next six months, sentiment was downgraded from July. The index for future General Business Conditions dipped by 8.1 points to 16, suggesting that, on the whole, businesses expect activity to increase in the months ahead.

Trends

To smooth monthly fluctuations and better highlight trends, the index can be calculated as a three-month moving average (3MMA). On this basis, the index improved by seven points to 0.5 (see Figure 1).

Recall that in 2024, we saw dramatic movements in the 3MMA. It touched a near four-year low of -22.3 in March 2024, then rebounded by November to reach a near three-year high of 10.3. Just two months ago, the 3MMA reading was at a 12-month low of -12.4. It has improved steadily since.

An interactive history of the Empire State Manufacturing Index is available on our website.