Analysis
September 19, 2025
SMU Week in Review: Sept. 15 -19
Written by Ethan Bernard
Let’s take a quick tour of some key stories from SMU in the week of Sept. 15-19.
Prices
Latest in Analysis
SMU Survey: Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rise
SMU’s Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices increased this week, according to our latest market survey. Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.
CSN reports wider net loss as steel shipments, revenue fall
Brazilian miner and steelmaker Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) increased steel production in the third quarter, but lower overseas shipments and a less favorable domestic product mix weighed on its quarterly results. The company also said renewed import pressure limited further price pass-throughs.
HRC vs. busheling spread widens again in November
The spread between domestic hot-rolled (HR) coil and prime scrap prices continued to widen this month, the 14th consecutive increase. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price averaged $1,375 per short ton (st) this week, up $25/st from last week and a $95/st increase from a month earlier.
US heating and cooling shipments fall for third straight month
US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.
Final Thoughts: Do Mesabi Metallics and Hyundai-POSCO signal more foreign steel investment in US?
Could two new steel projects signal a new direction in the marketplace? Both Mesabi Metallics’ recently announced steel facility in Iowa and the Hyundai-POSCO’s proposed mill in Louisiana are major undertakings. You don’t spitball a major steel mill and then start producing the next day. From initial concept to site selection and on up to the first melt, there is a labyrinth of permitting, planning, and construction to navigate before the first heat.