SMU Scrap Survey: Current and Future Sentiment tick down

Current Sentiment Index

SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap declined by just one point to +71 in October from +72 a month earlier. This is still trending well within the 63-77 band we’ve seen since February.

Future Sentiment Index

SMU’s Future Sentiment Index for scrap dipped by two points to +79 compared with September. Even with the steady decline over the past three months, future sentiment continues to track higher than current sentiment. Basically, buyers are more optimistic about the near-term future than they are about the present moment.

What’s the word on the street?

The word on the street is busheling might be down again in October, as much as $20 per gross ton (gt). There’s talk that other grades might decline as well. But it’s too early to know just yet.

Obsolescent grades could trade between $10-20/gt lower, even with some dealer resistance to dropping prices on shredded and HMS. But again, the flow of these grades has been a bit off.

About SMU’s Scrap Sentiment

SMU’s Current and Future Scrap Sentiment Indices mirror the Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices in our flat-rolled steel survey. They are diffusion indices: readings above 50 indicate a more bullish outlook, while readings below 50 indicate a more bearish one.

Sentiment is only one of the indicators we measure. Our scrap survey, like our steel survey, is available only to premium members. If you would like to upgrade from executive to premium, please contact SMU account executive Luis Corona at luis.corona@crugroup.com. If you’re interested in participating in our scrap survey, please reach out to david@steelmarketupdate.com.