Ferrous Scrap

Miller on Scrap: Analyzing the November market from different angles

October 20, 2025

Since the October prices came out, there have been a variety of speculative opinions on what the November looks like from several sources SMU regularly contacts.

One source says it depends on demand. Another source said it depends on supply. Yet still another source said it depends on export. And, finally, a fourth source said it depends on the weather.

Well, with all these factors, let’s examine each to see how they could affect the market.

Scrap demand

The demand for scrap for November is usually less than most months because of the Thanksgiving holiday. This month demand was not too different from other months despite a number of outages scheduled. Prices traded soft sideways on secondary grades and as predicted, down ~$20 per gross ton (gt) on prime grades. Many of the outages will be winding up in October. In November, there are several outages scheduled but they are for short durations.

Scrap supply

On the supply side, November is not the best month for scrap flows. Again, you have the holidays limiting supplies of industrial scrap. Although obsolescent flows have been fairly stable, months of declining and sideways pricing have started to erode the flow. Most dealers will sell enough scrap in November to last them through yearend. Given this, the November market could trade sideways, but watch out in December.

Export Market

The recent export activity from the US East Coast has put a dent in supplies of obsolete scrap grades that were potentially available for shipment into the interior. Prices for HMS delivered to export terminals have strengthened but by only a small amount. Today, HMS 80/20 is worth $353 per metric ton (mt) delivered to Turkey. This equates to about $315/mt FOB. US mills in the W. Pennsylvania district are paying $320/mt delivered (with no #2 HMS permitted). It is safe to say the inland freight is more than $5. If export prices continue to rise or stay even, export could be a factor.

Weather

It may be easier to predict future scrap prices than to predict the weather. Usually, November weather is not an issue as it can be during the true winter months. Most of our sources believe weather may affect shipments and flows in the coming months. However, the weather has to be very extreme to affect outbound logistics to the steelmakers. But it does affect inbound flows into dealers’ yards.

We will have to wait to see how these various factors weigh on the November scrap market.

Stephen Miller

Stephen Miller started his career in the scrap metal industry in 1978 at Luria Brothers in Cleveland. Over the last 40+ years, he has worked in all capacities in the trading business. He has had positions in both domestic and international scrap trading. In addition to scrap, Miller was at the forefront of the pig iron trade and established a pig iron distribution company under the name of Ferrosource, Inc. Most recently, Miller has concentrated on the scrap export market and regularly does consulting for several companies in the industry.