Product
October 20, 2025
Miller on Scrap: Analyzing the November market from different angles
Written by Stephen Miller
Since the October prices came out, there have been a variety of speculative opinions from several sources that SMU regularly contacts on what November looks like.
One source said it depends on demand. Another said it depends on supply. A third source said it depends on exports. And, finally, a fourth source said it depends on the weather.
Well, with all these factors, let’s examine each to see how they could affect the market.
Scrap demand
The demand for scrap in November is usually less than in most months because of the Thanksgiving holiday. This month’s demand was not too different from other months despite a number of scheduled outages. Prices traded soft sideways on secondary grades and, as predicted, down ~$20 per gross ton (gt) on prime grades. Many of the outages will be winding up this month. In November, there are several outages scheduled, but they are for short durations.
Scrap supply
On the supply side, November is not the best month for scrap flows. Again, you have the holidays limiting supplies of industrial scrap. Although obsolescent flows have been fairly stable, months of declining and sideways pricing have started to erode the flow. Most dealers will sell enough scrap in November to last them through the year’s end. Given this, the November market could trade sideways, but watch out in December.
Export market
The recent export activity from the US East Coast has put a dent in supplies of obsolete scrap grades that were potentially available for shipment into the interior. Prices for HMS delivered to export terminals have strengthened but by only a small amount. Today, HMS 80/20 is worth $353 per metric ton (mt) delivered to Turkey. This equates to about $315/mt FOB. US mills in the Western Pennsylvania district are paying $320/mt delivered (with no #2 HMS permitted). It is safe to say the inland freight is more than $5. If export prices continue to rise or stay even, export could be a factor.
Weather
It may be easier to predict future scrap prices than to predict the weather. Usually, November weather is not an issue, as it can be during the true winter months. Most of our sources believe weather may affect shipments and flows in the coming months. However, the weather has to be very extreme to affect outbound logistics to the steelmakers. But it does affect inbound flows into dealers’ yards.
We will have to wait to see how these various factors weigh on the November scrap market.
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