Analysis
November 14, 2025
SMU Survey: Current Sentiment falls, Future Sentiment ticks up
Written by Ethan Bernard
SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index slipped this week while Future Sentiment inched up, according to our most recent survey data.
Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and three to six months down the road. Their responses are used to calculate our Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, metrics we have tracked since 2009.
Current Sentiment
The Current Sentiment Index fell to +37 from +40 two weeks prior. (Figure 1). Note that the highest reading in 2025 was in February at +66. Since then, the index has failed to crack +50 since mid-March.
Fig 1
Future Sentiment
Future Sentiment inched up one point to +54 this week (Figure 2). The index has stayed in a narrow band between +50-54 since August.
What respondents are saying:
“Past early Q1, forward curve looks fragile.”
“The market needs to improve.”
“Uncertainty still a drag on planning.”
“Processing is allowing us to participate in more markets and geographic expansion if creating some volume growth/stability.”
“Market dynamics don’t favor imports.”
“Loaded question. Over the next 4 – 6 weeks we are prepared to perform well.”
“Market should stabilize.”
“As long as the economy doesn’t have a sharp downturn, we are performing well.”
“Not much seems to be changing.”
Sentiment trends
Our Sentiment Indices can be analyzed on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to smooth out short-term swings.
The Current Sentiment 3MMA increased to +34.33 from +32.82 from at the previous market check (Figure 3, left).
And the Future Sentiment 3MMA rose to +52.10 vs. +51.66 in the same comparison (Figure 3, right).
About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index
The SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. View our methodology here. If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.
