Manufacturers/End Users
December 1, 2025
Chicago Business Barometer fell to 18-month low in November
Written by Brett Linton
The Chicago Business Barometer tumbled to an 18-month low in November, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The barometer surveys purchasing and supply management professionals in the Chicago area each month to gauge company-level business conditions. November marks the 24th consecutive month that the index has been in contraction.
The November reading dipped seven points from October to 36.3, the lowest measure recorded since May 2024. This is a diffusion index, where a reading above 50 indicates improving business conditions and a reading below that indicates contraction. The index has only signaled expansion one time in the past three years (November 2023).
MNI attributed this decrease to declines in order backlogs, new orders, production, and employment. Just one of the five subcomponents rose from October to November. Namely, supplier deliveries.
Respondents were asked three seasonality questions in the survey, which ran from November 1 to November 18.
Q: How do your 2025 holiday and/or winter season order volumes compare to 2024?
A: Over half of respondents (55%) said this question was not applicable to their business. Of the remainder, 19% responded that 2025 volumes were lower, 15% said volumes were higher, and 11% were unsure.
Q: How do your 2025 holiday and/or winter season prices compare to 2024?
A: Responses to this question were split. Just under half (48%) of respondents said this question was not applicable to them, while an equal share replied that prices are higher. Just 4% said that prices were lower this year.
Q: What is your current progress on holiday and/or winter season orders?
A: Two thirds of respondents said this question was not applicable to their business. The remaining third was equally divided between ‘More than 50% complete,’ ‘Less than 50% complete’, and ‘Unsure.’
View the full release here.
