Analysis
December 11, 2025
Spot market hopes sheet price hikes indicate a bullish start to 2026
Written by Kristen DiLandro
Participants in the domestic coil market hope producer price increases indicate strong market conditions entering the new year.
Nucor issued its seventh weekly price increase on Monday, Dec. 8, lifting its spot market prices on HR by $55 per short ton (st) in less than two months. Just a week earlier, on Dec.1, ArcelorMittal and Stelco in Canada each announced CA$100/st (US$72) spot price increases. US tariffs on Canadian steel have made importing less attractive to the US-based market. However, participants wonder whether the price hikes from producers in “The Great North” reflect stronger order books.
Market perspectives
In contrast to market commentary in November, bemoaning mill hikes, participants were more optimistic this week. Most want to see producer increases as a signal that bullish market conditions will emerge in 2026.
A Midwestern service center associate says he has significant skepticism about the sustainability of recent price increases.
“Hopefully next year will be better. I can’t see mills increasing capacity, except BlueScope, which had their plan to increase in place years ago. Domestic producers will balance prices to foreign prices. That way, if there are domestic shortages, imports can come in,” he said.
The same Midwesterner hopes next year will be a promising one.
“End market demand is the most important factor for better times in 2026. Spot prices are increasing more than we thought they would. SMU prices are right where we are seeing them,” he added.
A second Midwest-based steel service center associate said his organization will continue to buy only on an “as-needed basis.”
“We are buying only what we need even though pricing is increasing. Our concern is for how long before it levels off and then drops again. I wonder how long these prices will stick,” he commented.
He said he’s hopeful the Fed (The Federal Reserve Bank) will go through with a decrease in interest rates, and hopes a cut can stimulate more growth in Q1’26.
Out on the West Coast, a service center source said he is waiting to see what the scrap market will do.
“I’m waiting to see where scrap settles in December. That may mean we see a small bump up carryover into the New Year,” he said.
“Yet sooner or later they [mills] need to get help from the demand side if they want to sustain pricing in the first quarter,” he noted. “If it wasn’t for data centers, where would the demand come from? The auto industry, manufacturing, and construction are all down.”
“Right now,” he continued, “I don’t look to be placing any large orders until a clearer picture is available for pricing. I think all buyers are cautious. Our customers are trying to finish up the remainder of their year in the next two weeks before the Holidays are here. Business isn’t bad, it will slow down though.”
Price assessments for domestic coil
This week, SMU held the spot market HR and CR coil prices at the prior week’s level, as sources in the weekly assessment reported that most HR transactions remain within the $860-930/st range, with the average price at $895/st. Spot CR prices ranged from $1,040 to $1,100/st, with an average of $1,070/st.
In the equivalent week of 2024, domestically produced HR spot prices averaged $675/st. The current average of $895/st is 33% higher than last year. During the same period, the average CR spot market transaction price was $890/st. This week’s average CR spot price is 20% higher than the equivalent week last year.
All prices are ex-works, domestic mill, unless otherwise noted.
