Analysis
December 16, 2025
January scrap market poised for bump - but how much?
Written by Stephen Miller
There are few firm predictions about the January scrap market in North America at mid-month, except to say it will be stronger. The question is by how much?
SMU spoke with a trader in the Ohio district who told us he expects prices for January scrap to increase but declined to speculate by how much.
He said there were too many variables to influence pricing. Additionally, he said logistics will play a role in determining final pricing, meaning can tons sold be actually delivered?
This is a salient point since winter weather has come early to the steelmaking areas of the US. If it persists into January, scrap flows into yards slow to a trickle and deliveries to mills can be hampered, according to this trader.
A source in Western Pennsylvania said that despite the snowy and frozen conditions, he does not anticipate a large uptick in scrap prices. He noted export price levels may have peaked.
“I think up, I just don’t think huge,” he said.
SMU spoke to another source farther to the west who does not think prices will get out of hand, compared to the last few years during the winter months.
He indicated there are several large dealers that have large inventories of scrap, which they will aim to ship during January. And this could keep prices in check.
The source also indicated demand will be less than expected in some areas but will be generally firm in most. He cited the Chicago district as an example. The integrated mills in this region will not buy much scrap in January, so the scrap can be sourced for other areas.
As far as pricing, he sees a $20-30 per gross ton (gt) increase in most districts.
A scrap executive in the Southeast told SMU the market will be stronger by about $20/gt.
“We got an up $20 in December (on some grades), so another $20 in January makes $40,” he added.
He does not see the larger increases of over $50/gt that occurred the last several years. He cautioned despite some scrap facilities that have been holding large inventories of material, there isn’t a lot of scrap in the system given the robust demand for scrap in the Southern markets. The executive also said it’s a bit early to come to any realistic assessment of January prices.
In general, sources SMU has contacted have played down any expectations of large price increases. It is not entirely clear the reasoning for this lack of confidence in the strength of the market.
Some think there is scrap overhanging the market, but some say there is no overhang. Some are expecting increased scrap demand, yet others say it will not increase significantly. Whoever is right, we’ll have to wait until after Christmas and the new year to find out.
