Analysis
December 19, 2025
Pig iron prices poised for an increase?
Written by Stephen Miller
The price of pig iron looks to strengthen as producing nations cite rising ferrous scrap values.
In Brazil, producers have sold what they needed at prices in the $395-400 per metric ton (mt) range for December and January shipment. As they review the upcoming calendar, February is the next availability for shipment to the US or Europe.
Earlier this month, producers in Brazil were asking as high as $410/mt FOB, but at least one cargo ended up only commanding a price of $400. At the time, European buyers had already booked several cargoes in November, so there was no alternative to the US. Have things changed since then?
SMU spoke with a large channel in Belo Horizonte in Brazil who said there has been no new business done.
He added his channel is now asking $420/mt FOB. Their last cargo to the US sold at $395/mt in late November. So, this would be a $25/mt increase. There is debate whether this increase is achievable without competition from Europe.
Another Brazilian trader told SMU, there was a cargo sold at $408/mt FOB. So, the offer price going up to $420 is logical with the conceded rise in scrap prices anticipated in January. Regarding Europe, he said, the CBAM fee imposed on Brazilian pig iron is less than half of that imposed on Ukraine and one quarter of that on Russia. He added, as a result, more Ukrainian material will be sent to the US in the future and more Brazilian will be importd into Europe.
The European Union’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) goes into effect on Jan. 1.
SMU spoke with a US source involved in the trade. He said, “I think they (Brazilian producers) will get it in January.” He noted increasing scrap prices may allow for the increase.
Ukraine has remained a supplier to the US and Europe throughout 2025. In the January-November period, Ukraine exported 1.73 million mt of pig iron, according to data published by the State Customs Service in Ukraine. Of this amount, 1.28 million were sent to the US with the balance mainly going to Italy and a minor amount to Poland.
During 2025, the US has been importing between 100,000-150,000 mt of pig iron from Ukraine. In November, the Customs Service reported only 56,000 mt was shipped to the US. Sources have told SMU this reduction was due to low pricing in the US and better pricing in southern Europe.
It remains unclear whether there will be further business transacted until after the holidays.
